Scenarios of land cover in China
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Yue T. X. ; Fan Z. M. ; Liu J. Y. |
| 发表日期 | 2007 |
| 关键词 | land cover scenarios climatic change surface modeling China yellow-river delta climate-change model impacts classification ecosystems patterns wetland hadcm3 |
| 英文摘要 | A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| 出处 | Global and Planetary Change |
| 卷 | 55 |
| 期 | 4 |
| 页 | 317-342 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 0921-8181 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/22472]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yue T. X.,Fan Z. M.,Liu J. Y.. Scenarios of land cover in China. 2007. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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