Dynamic prediction of Chinese development based on the ecological footprint method
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Liu M. C. ; Li W. H. ; Fu C. ; Zhang D. |
| 发表日期 | 2010 |
| 关键词 | ecological footprint biocapacity dynamic model scenario analysis China energy sustainability capacity resource trade |
| 英文摘要 | Ecological footprint (EF), as a physical indicator to measure the extent of humanity's use of natural resources, is one of the most successful methods used to assess sustainable development. This paper calculated the per capita EF and biocapacity (BC) of China from 1949 to 2008 and the fluctuant cycles of per capita EF and BC, which were decomposed and assessed based on empirical mode decomposition and nonlinear dynamic prediction models. We propose prediction scenarios and the results show that: (1) over the last 60 years, the per capita EF increasingly fluctuated while the per capita BC constantly reduced, and since 1985, China has had an aggregate ecological deficit (ED); (2) the business-as-usual scenario looked at the consequences if average annual change rates of per capita EF and BC are constant, where the per capita ED would be 3.9024 gha in 2030, a very grim situation for China; and (3) if the productivity of natural ecosystems increases by 10%, consumption of natural ecosystems and emission of CO2 and contamination could be reduced by 10% and per capita ED would be 1.5217 gha in 2030, then the potential for sustainable development will be much better than the business-as-usual scenario. Finally, some policy recommendations are presented, such as increased land productivity to meet growing demand, reducing over-consumption of resources to mitigate ecological overload, promoting resource-saving consumption and paying attention to international trade. |
| 出处 | International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology |
| 卷 | 17 |
| 期 | 6 |
| 页 | 499-506 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 1350-4509 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/23452]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu M. C.,Li W. H.,Fu C.,et al. Dynamic prediction of Chinese development based on the ecological footprint method. 2010. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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