Statistical downscaling of daily mean temperature, pan evaporation and precipitation for climate change scenarios in Haihe River, China
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Xia J. |
| 发表日期 | 2010 |
| 关键词 | circulation model output central sweden impacts simulation rainband rainfall |
| 英文摘要 | A statistical downscaling method (SDSM) was evaluated by simultaneously downscaling air temperature, evaporation, and precipitation in Haihe River basin, China. The data used for evaluation were large-scale atmospheric data encompassing daily NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the daily mean climate model results for scenarios A2 and B2 of the HadCM3 model. Selected as climate variables for downscaling were measured daily mean air temperature, pan evaporation, and precipitation data (1961-2000) from 11 weather stations in the Haihe River basin. The results obtained from SDSM showed that: (1) the pattern of change in and numerical values of the climate variables can be reasonably simulated, with the coefficients of determination between observed and downscaled mean temperature, pan evaporation, and precipitation being 99%, 93%, and 73%, respectively; (2) systematic errors existed in simulating extreme events, but the results were acceptable for practical applications; and (3) the mean air temperature would increase by about 0.7A degrees C during 2011 similar to 2040; the total annual precipitation would decrease by about 7% in A2 scenario but increase by about 4% in B2 scenario; and there were no apparent changes in pan evaporation. It was concluded that in the next 30 years, climate would be warmer and drier, extreme events could be more intense, and autumn might be the most distinct season among all the changes. |
| 出处 | Theoretical and Applied Climatology |
| 卷 | 99 |
| 期 | 1-2 |
| 页 | 149-161 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 0177-798X |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/24181]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xia J.. Statistical downscaling of daily mean temperature, pan evaporation and precipitation for climate change scenarios in Haihe River, China. 2010. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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