Chaotic analysis on monthly precipitation on hills region in middle SiChuan, China
文献类型：会议论文
| 作者 | Men B. H. |
| 出版日期 | 2004 |
| 关键词 | correlation dimension hills region in middle of SiChuan principal component analysis (PCA) method kolmogorov entropy time-series deterministic chaos strange attractors river flow rainfall nonlinearity redundancies storm |
| 页码 | 744-750 |
| 英文摘要 | The chaotic behavior of monthly precipitation time series tau = 5 is investigated using the phase-space reconstruction technique and the principal component analysis(PCA) method. A hydrological time series, monthly precipitation time series of 50 years( with a total of 600 values) observed on hills in middle region of Si Chuan, China, is studied. Delay time of monthly precipitation time series tau = 5 is calculated by autocorrelation function method. With delay time increasing, the autocorrelation function of monthly precipitation time series shows the correlation characteristics of, monthly precipitation. Relationship between embedding dimension m and correlation dimension D-2 is discussed. Meanwhile, saturation correlation dimension, minimum embedding dimension and Kolmogorov entropy are calculated, that is D-2 = 4.02, m = 19 and k = 0.25. Primary component analytic method (PCA) that belongs to symbolic Stat. measure is applied to validate chaotic character of monthly precipitation time series and result shows forecasting length for monthly precipitation time series should be less than 4.0 months instead of long-term prediction. Thus, chaotic analysis on precipitation time series provides a scientific gist for determining length of predicting period. |
| 收录类别 | CPCI |
| 会议录出版者 | China Agricultural Univ |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISBN号 | 7-109-09448-0 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/25229]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Men B. H.. Chaotic analysis on monthly precipitation on hills region in middle SiChuan, China[C]. 见:. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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