21st century runoff sensitivities of major global river basins
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Tang Q. H. ; Lettenmaier D. P. |
| 发表日期 | 2012 |
| 关键词 | cumulative carbon emissions climate-change water-resources streamflow elasticity discharge ensemble drought models cycle |
| 英文摘要 | River runoff is a key index of renewable water resources which affect almost all human and natural systems. Any substantial change in runoff will therefore have serious social, environmental, and ecological consequences. We estimate the runoff response to global mean temperature change implied by the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). In contrast to previous studies, we estimate the runoff sensitivity using global mean temperature change as an index of anthropogenic climate changes in temperature and precipitation, with the rationale that this removes the dependence on emissions scenarios. Our results show that the runoff sensitivity implied by the IPCC experiments is relatively stable across emissions scenarios and global mean temperature increments, but varies substantially across models with the exception of the high-latitudes and currently arid or semi-arid areas. The runoff sensitivities are slightly higher at 0.5 degrees C warming than for larger amounts of warming. The estimated ratio of runoff change to (local) precipitation change (runoff elasticity) ranges from about one to three, and the runoff temperature sensitivity (change in runoff per degree C of local temperature increase) ranges from decreases of about 2 to 6% over most basins in North America and the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia. Citation: Tang, Q., and D. P. Lettenmaier (2012), 21st century runoff sensitivities of major global river basins, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06403, doi: 10.1029/2011GL050834. |
| 出处 | Geophysical Research Letters |
| 卷 | 39 |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 0094-8276 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/26792]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tang Q. H.,Lettenmaier D. P.. 21st century runoff sensitivities of major global river basins. 2012. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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