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Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhang YX; Zhang XT; Wu YJ; Yin XC(尹祥础)
刊名PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS
出版日期2013
卷号170期号:1-2页码:197-208
通讯作者邮箱yxzhseis@sina.com; qdzxt_116@163.com; wuyongj@mails.gucas.ac.cn; xcyin@public.bta.net.cn
关键词PI method retrospective study earthquake predictability Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake Yutian M7.3 earthquake ROC test R score test
ISSN号0033-4553
产权排序[Zhang, Yongxian; Zhang, Xiaotao; Wu, Yongjia] China Earthquake Networks Ctr, Beijing 100045, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Yongxian; Yin, Xiangchu] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mech, LNM, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China; [Yin, Xiangchu] China Earthquake Adm, Inst Earthquake Sci, Beijing 100036, Peoples R China
通讯作者Zhang, YX (reprint author), China Earthquake Networks Ctr, Beijing 100045, Peoples R China.
合作状况国内
中文摘要Two large earthquakes occurred in the western part of China in 2008, one of them being the Yutian (35.6A degrees N, 81.6A degrees E) M7.3 earthquake that occurred on March 21 (BJT) and the other the Wenchuan (31.0A degrees N, 103.4A degrees E) M8.0 earthquake that occurred on May 12 (BJT). In this paper, the West Continental China (included in 20.0A degrees-50.0A degrees N, 70.0A degrees-110.0A degrees E region) was the study region for verifyong the predictability of the pattern informatics (PI) method using the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) test and R score test. Different forecasting maps with different calculating parameters were obtained. The calculating parameters were the grid size Delta x, base time t (b), reference interval t (b) to t (1), change interval t (1) to t (2), and forecasting interval t (2) to t (3). In this paper, the base time t (b) fixed to June 1, 1971, the ending forecast time t (3) fixed to June 1, 2008, and the forecasting interval t (2) to t (3) changed from 1 to 10 years, and the grid sizes were chosen as 1A degrees A xA 1A degrees and 2A degrees A xA 2A degrees, respectively. The results show that the PI method could forecast the Yutian M7.3 and Wenchuan M8.0 earthquakes only using suitable parameters. Comparing the forecast results of grid sizes 1A degrees A xA 1A degrees and 2A degrees A xA 2A degrees, the models with 2A degrees A xA 2A degrees grids were better. Comparing the forecast results with different forecasting windows from 1 to 10 years, the models with forecasting windows of 4-8 years were better using the ROC test, and the models with forecasting windows of 7-10 years were better using the R score test. The forecast efficiency of the model with a grid size of 2A degrees A xA 2A degrees and forecast window of 8 years was the best one using either the ROC test or the R score test.
学科主题固体力学
分类号二类/Q2
类目[WOS]Geochemistry & Geophysics
研究领域[WOS]Geochemistry & Geophysics
关键词[WOS]PRECURSORY SEISMIC ACTIVATION ; 1999 CHI-CHI ; THRESHOLD SYSTEMS ; SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ; CRITICAL-POINT ; FAULT SYSTEMS ; DYNAMICS ; EVENTS ; TAIWAN ; VERIFICATION
收录类别SCI ; EI
资助信息Ministry of Science and Technology [2010DFB20190, 2008BAC35B05]
原文出处http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00024-011-0444-6
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000313455700014
公开日期2013-03-07
源URL[http://dspace.imech.ac.cn/handle/311007/47030]  
专题力学研究所_非线性力学国家重点实验室
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhang YX,Zhang XT,Wu YJ,et al. Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes[J]. PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS,2013,170(1-2):197-208.
APA Zhang YX,Zhang XT,Wu YJ,&Yin XC.(2013).Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes.PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS,170(1-2),197-208.
MLA Zhang YX,et al."Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0 and Yutian M7.3 Earthquakes".PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS 170.1-2(2013):197-208.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：力学研究所

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