AN OBSERVATION-BASED UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION COUPLING AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION APPROACH FOR ECOLOGICAL MODEL OF SHALLOW LAKE
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Li, JM |
| 刊名 | FRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN
 |
| 出版日期 | 2012 |
| 卷号 | 21期号:8A页码:2255-2265 |
| ISSN号 | 1018-4619 |
| 关键词 | Uncertainty evaluation Automatic calibration approach Ecological model Shallow lake Stochastic model |
| 通讯作者 | jli@scsio.ac.cn |
| 中文摘要 | Uncertainty evaluation of ecological model is critical for improving prediction and identifying effective management strategies of shallow lakes. In this study, an automatic calibration approach was developed to precisely evaluate the values of uncertainties. In the approach, the inherent and environmental uncertainties are reflected from the evaluation of parameter values and the input of boundary conditions, respectively. By the approach, both the optimal values of parameters and the uncertainty levels of parameters and boundary conditions are accurately calibrated against observation data. The approach was coupled with an ecological model and applied to a case study. Modeling results showed good agreement between simulations and observation data in the total trends as well as the detailed distributions. Comparing with deterministic modeling and arbitrary stochastic modeling, the calibrated stochastic modeling supported by the approach predicted the potential risk of remediation measures in a more reasonable form. These results suggest that the proposed approach and its coupling model are useful tools for uncertainty assessment and environmental management in shallow lake systems. |
| 学科主题 | Environmental Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000309326100015 |
| 公开日期 | 2013-08-28 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/10229]  |
| 专题 | 南海海洋研究所_热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO) |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, JM. AN OBSERVATION-BASED UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION COUPLING AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION APPROACH FOR ECOLOGICAL MODEL OF SHALLOW LAKE[J]. FRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN,2012,21(8A):2255-2265. |
| APA | Li, JM.(2012).AN OBSERVATION-BASED UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION COUPLING AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION APPROACH FOR ECOLOGICAL MODEL OF SHALLOW LAKE.FRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN,21(8A),2255-2265. |
| MLA | Li, JM."AN OBSERVATION-BASED UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION COUPLING AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION APPROACH FOR ECOLOGICAL MODEL OF SHALLOW LAKE".FRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN 21.8A(2012):2255-2265. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：南海海洋研究所
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