The impacts of uncertainties on the carbon mitigation design: Perspective from abatement cost and emission rate
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Guo, Jian-Xin3,4; Tan, Xianchun3,4; Gu, Baihe3,4; Qu, Xinglong1,2 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-09-20 |
| 卷号 | 232页码:213-223 |
| 关键词 | Climate change mitigation Abatement strategy Abatement uncertainty Stochastic dynamic programming |
| ISSN号 | 0959-6526 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.328 |
| 英文摘要 | In this paper, we use a stochastic dynamic programming model to evaluate the impacts of uncertainties on the abatement planning process. By involving the endogenous emission path, we differentiate two types of uncertainties during the planning process, which come from the volatility of the abatement cost and the ambiguity of emission rate. Results suggest that the considered uncertainties influence the decision-making process in several aspects by shaping the abatement path as well as emission path. (1) The impacts vary with the expected value and the level of variance of the uncertainty effects. Uncertainties caused by abatement costs from 0.02 to 0.06 and emission factors from 0.01 to 0.03 increase the total abatement costs around 7% and 5% respectively. (2) Both of these uncertainties can generate precautionary abatement in short-term. Especially during the early stages, the abatement task will be increased by 1% around in each period due to the uncertainties. However such an action will be diminishing as the duration elapses. (3) Both of these uncertainties influence the long-term abatement performances, however, with different forms and mechanisms. With small volatility, the emission rate changes the priority sequence of abatement actions more substantially in the short-term than the emission rate does. (4) The combined uncertainties can behave in a compound way to improve the uncertainty performance in the model. The difference between the emission peaks of conservative and extreme cases is significant with the gap being about 5 million metric ton. These results have potentially important policy implications and can provide a rationale for abatement actions. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| 资助项目 | National Key R&D Program of China[2018YFC1509008] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71801212] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71701058] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71804178] |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000477784000019 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/35230]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| 通讯作者 | Guo, Jian-Xin; Qu, Xinglong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Hangzhou Dianzi Univ, Res Ctr Informat Technol & Social & Econ Dev, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Sci & Dev, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Guo, Jian-Xin,Tan, Xianchun,Gu, Baihe,et al. The impacts of uncertainties on the carbon mitigation design: Perspective from abatement cost and emission rate[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2019,232:213-223. |
| APA | Guo, Jian-Xin,Tan, Xianchun,Gu, Baihe,&Qu, Xinglong.(2019).The impacts of uncertainties on the carbon mitigation design: Perspective from abatement cost and emission rate.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,232,213-223. |
| MLA | Guo, Jian-Xin,et al."The impacts of uncertainties on the carbon mitigation design: Perspective from abatement cost and emission rate".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 232(2019):213-223. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
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