A Demand Forecasting Method Based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Model Average: An Application in Air Travel Demand Forecasting
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang Xinyu1,2 ; Zheng Yafei1,3; Wang Shouyang1,2
|
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 32期号:2页码:615-633 |
| 关键词 | Air travel demand demand forecasting model average model uncertainty stochastic frontier analysis |
| ISSN号 | 1009-6124 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11424-018-7093-0 |
| 英文摘要 | Demand forecasting is often difficult due to the unobservability of the applicable historical demand series. In this study, the authors propose a demand forecasting method based on stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) models and a model average technique. First, considering model uncertainty, a set of alternative SFA models with various combinations of explanatory variables and distribution assumptions are constructed to estimate demands. Second, an average estimate from the estimated demand values is obtained using a model average technique. Finally, future demand forecasts are achieved, with the average estimates used as historical observations. An empirical application of air travel demand forecasting is implemented. The results of a forecasting performance comparison show that in addition to its ability to estimate demand, the proposed method outperforms other common methods in terms of forecasting passenger traffic. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71522004] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11471324] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71631008] ; Ministry of Education of China[17YJC910011] |
| WOS研究方向 | Mathematics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000462987000011 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER HEIDELBERG |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/34365]  |
| 专题 | 系统科学研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang Xinyu |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Shenwan Hongyuan Secur Co Ltd, Postdoctoral Working Stn, Shanghai 200031, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang Xinyu,Zheng Yafei,Wang Shouyang. A Demand Forecasting Method Based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Model Average: An Application in Air Travel Demand Forecasting[J]. JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,2019,32(2):615-633. |
| APA | Zhang Xinyu,Zheng Yafei,&Wang Shouyang.(2019).A Demand Forecasting Method Based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Model Average: An Application in Air Travel Demand Forecasting.JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,32(2),615-633. |
| MLA | Zhang Xinyu,et al."A Demand Forecasting Method Based on Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Model Average: An Application in Air Travel Demand Forecasting".JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY 32.2(2019):615-633. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
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