Method of debris flow prediction based on a numerical weather forecast and its application
文献类型：会议论文
| 作者 | Wei, F1; Gao, K1; Cui, P1 ; Hu, K1; Xu, J2; Zhang, G2; Bi, B2
|
| 出版日期 | 2006 |
| 会议日期 | 2006 |
| 会议地点 | Rhodes |
| 关键词 | debris flow prediction numerical weather forecast south-west of China |
| 卷号 | 90 |
| DOI | 10.2495/DEB060041 |
| 页码 | 37-46 |
| 国家 | GREECE |
| 英文摘要 | Debris flow is one of the main natural hazards in mountains areas of China, especially in south-western China. Because the region with debris flow hazard is wide and the number of debris flow valleys is great, debris flow prediction is an important measure of debris flow disaster mitigation. A prediction method of debris flow based on a numerical weather forecast was carried out. According to the conditions of debris flow formation including energy, incompact debris and inducing factors (rainfall), the relative height, stratum, fault, land use, total rainfall consisting of effective antecedent precipitation and forecasting precipitation, and maximum precipitation intensity of I hour were selected as factors for prediction of debris flow. A prediction model was set up with these factors and extension theory which is a new kind of knowledge system based on the concepts of matter-element and extension set. In the model, total rainfall and maximum rainfall intensity of 1 hour obtained by a numerical weather forecast are the principle input variables. South-westem China including Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou and Chongqing which has heaviest debris flow disasters in China was selected as a case study region. An application system of debris flow prediction based on the model was developed with GIS (ArcGIS) for the study region. |
| 源文献作者 | Lorenzini, G ; Brebbia, CA ; Emmanouloudis, D |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 会议录 | Monitoring, Simulation, Prevention and Remediation of Dense and Debris Flows
 |
| 会议录出版者 | WIT PRESS |
| 会议录出版地 | SOUTHAMPTON |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| ISSN号 | 1746-448X |
| ISBN号 | 1-84564-169-8 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000239378000004 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/33518]  |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_成都山地所知识仓储（2009年以前） 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Wei, F |
| 作者单位 | 1.Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences; 2.National Meteorology Center of Chinese Meteorological Administration |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wei, F,Gao, K,Cui, P,et al. Method of debris flow prediction based on a numerical weather forecast and its application[C]. 见:. Rhodes. 2006. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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