Drought disaster risks under CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Tan, Chunping2,3,4 ; Yang, Jianping4; Wang, Xiaoming4; Qin, Dahe4; Huang, Bo1; Chen, Hongju4
|
| 刊名 | NATURAL HAZARDS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020-02-01 |
| 卷号 | 100期号:3页码:909-931 |
| 关键词 | Drought Disaster risk Global climate model (GCM) Ningxia |
| ISSN号 | 0921-030X |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11069-019-03811-0 |
| 产权排序 | 2 |
| 通讯作者 | Yang, Jianping(jianping@lzb.ac.cn) |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China (Ningxia), one of main agriculture areas in northwest China, has been severely affected by drought. Based on observed meteorological data, outputs of 20 global climate models and drought disaster data, future climate change and relevant drought hazard in the twenty-first century were projected in Ningxia, with the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5; the risks of people, crop, and agriculture economy to drought disasters are quantitatively assessed, with the application of physical vulnerability curve models, probability distribution functions and Monte Carlo simulation method. It is found that the climate in Ningxia is likely to have a warming and wetting tendency in the twenty-first century. The extent of drought hazard is likely to increase. The increase rate is greater under RCP4.5 than that under RCP2.6. In general, the risks of population, crop, and agriculture to drought disasters are likely to increase in Ningxia in the twenty-first century. The magnitude of increase is likely to reach the greatest in the immediate term (2016-2035), followed by the increase in the medium term (2046-2065), and the long term (2081-2100). In comparison with RCP2.6, the drought disaster risks under the scenario of RCP4.5 are likely to increase further in three periods of the twenty-first century. The findings of this work have potential to provide data support for drought disaster risk management and support risk-based decision-making. |
| 电子版国际标准刊号 | 1573-0840 |
| WOS关键词 | SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; INDEX ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; MAIZE ; DRYNESS ; FLOOD |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000513366100001 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/34084]  |
| 专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Yang, Jianping |
| 作者单位 | 1.Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Energy & Proc Engn, Ind Ecol Programme, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Earth Surface Proc, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China; 3.Sichuan Univ, Inst Disaster Management & Reconstruct, Chengdu 610207, Peoples R China; 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 73000, Peoples R China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tan, Chunping,Yang, Jianping,Wang, Xiaoming,et al. Drought disaster risks under CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2020,100(3):909-931. |
| APA | Tan, Chunping,Yang, Jianping,Wang, Xiaoming,Qin, Dahe,Huang, Bo,&Chen, Hongju.(2020).Drought disaster risks under CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China.NATURAL HAZARDS,100(3),909-931. |
| MLA | Tan, Chunping,et al."Drought disaster risks under CMIP5 RCP scenarios in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China".NATURAL HAZARDS 100.3(2020):909-931. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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