中国科学院机构知识库网格
Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China

文献类型:期刊论文

作者Zhang, Yi1,2,3; Muscatello, David J.1; Cao, Zhidong4; Chughtai, Abrar A.1; Costantino, Valentina1; Zhang, Daitao2,3; Yang, Peng2,3; Wang, Quanyi2,3; MacIntyre, C. Raina5,6,7
刊名HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS
出版日期2020-01-26
页码6
ISSN号2164-5515
关键词Influenza vaccination model children China
DOI10.1080/21645515.2019.1705692
通讯作者Wang, Quanyi(bjcdcxm@126.com)
英文摘要Background: Children aged under 5 years are particularly vulnerable to influenza infection. In this study, we aim to estimate the number and incidence of influenza among young children and estimate the impact of childhood vaccination in different scenarios from 2013/14 to 2016/17 seasons. Methods: The number and incidence rate of influenza infections among children aged under 5 years in Beijing was estimated by scaling up observed surveillance data. Then, we used a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery (SEIR) model to reproduce the weekly number of influenza infections estimated in Beijing during the study seasons, and to estimate the number and proportion of influenza-attributed medically attended acute respiratory infections (I-MAARI) averted by vaccination in each season. Finally, we evaluated the impact of alternative childhood vaccination programs with different coverage and speed of vaccine distribution. Results: The estimated average annual incidence of influenza in children aged under 5 years was 33.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 27.5%, 47.2%) during the study period. With the actual coverage during the included seasons at around 2.9%, an average of 3.9% (95%CI: 3.5%, 4.4%) I-MAARI was reduced compared to a no-vaccination scenario. Reaching 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 80% and 100% vaccine coverage would lead to an overall I-MAARI reduction of 25.3%, 42.7%, 51.9%, 57.0%, 65.3% and 71.2%. At 20% coverage scenario, an average of 28.8% I-MAARI will be prevented if intensive vaccination implemented in 2 months since the vaccine released. Conclusion: In Beijing, the introduction of a program for vaccinating young children, even at relatively low vaccine coverage rates, would considerably reduce I-MAARI, particularly if the vaccines can be quickly delivered.
WOS关键词SEASONAL INFLUENZA ; BURDEN ; HOSPITALIZATION ; ENGLAND
资助项目Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research[2018-1-1012] ; NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence[APP1107393]
WOS研究方向Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology ; Immunology
语种英语
出版者TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC
WOS记录号WOS:000511724900001
资助机构Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research ; NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence
源URL[http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/28602]  
专题自动化研究所_复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室_互联网大数据与安全信息学研究中心
通讯作者Wang, Quanyi
作者单位1.Univ New South Wales, Sch Publ Hlth & Community Med, Sydney, NSW, Australia
2.Beijing Municipal Ctr Dis Prevent & Control, Inst Infect Dis & Endem Dis Control, 16 Hepingli Middle St, Beijing 100013, Peoples R China
3.Beijing Res Ctr Prevent Med, 16 Hepingli Middle St, Beijing 100013, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Univ New South Wales, Fac Med, Kirby Inst, Sydney, NSW, Australia
6.Arizona State Univ, Coll Publ Serv & Community Solut, Phoenix, AZ USA
7.Arizona State Univ, Coll Hlth Solut, Phoenix, AZ USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Yi,Muscatello, David J.,Cao, Zhidong,et al. A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China[J]. HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS,2020:6.
APA Zhang, Yi.,Muscatello, David J..,Cao, Zhidong.,Chughtai, Abrar A..,Costantino, Valentina.,...&MacIntyre, C. Raina.(2020).A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China.HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS,6.
MLA Zhang, Yi,et al."A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China".HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS (2020):6.

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来源:自动化研究所

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