A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China
文献类型:期刊论文
作者 | Zhang, Yi1,2,3; Muscatello, David J.1; Cao, Zhidong4; Chughtai, Abrar A.1; Costantino, Valentina1; Zhang, Daitao2,3; Yang, Peng2,3; Wang, Quanyi2,3; MacIntyre, C. Raina5,6,7 |
刊名 | HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS |
出版日期 | 2020-01-26 |
页码 | 6 |
ISSN号 | 2164-5515 |
关键词 | Influenza vaccination model children China |
DOI | 10.1080/21645515.2019.1705692 |
通讯作者 | Wang, Quanyi(bjcdcxm@126.com) |
英文摘要 | Background: Children aged under 5 years are particularly vulnerable to influenza infection. In this study, we aim to estimate the number and incidence of influenza among young children and estimate the impact of childhood vaccination in different scenarios from 2013/14 to 2016/17 seasons. Methods: The number and incidence rate of influenza infections among children aged under 5 years in Beijing was estimated by scaling up observed surveillance data. Then, we used a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery (SEIR) model to reproduce the weekly number of influenza infections estimated in Beijing during the study seasons, and to estimate the number and proportion of influenza-attributed medically attended acute respiratory infections (I-MAARI) averted by vaccination in each season. Finally, we evaluated the impact of alternative childhood vaccination programs with different coverage and speed of vaccine distribution. Results: The estimated average annual incidence of influenza in children aged under 5 years was 33.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 27.5%, 47.2%) during the study period. With the actual coverage during the included seasons at around 2.9%, an average of 3.9% (95%CI: 3.5%, 4.4%) I-MAARI was reduced compared to a no-vaccination scenario. Reaching 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 80% and 100% vaccine coverage would lead to an overall I-MAARI reduction of 25.3%, 42.7%, 51.9%, 57.0%, 65.3% and 71.2%. At 20% coverage scenario, an average of 28.8% I-MAARI will be prevented if intensive vaccination implemented in 2 months since the vaccine released. Conclusion: In Beijing, the introduction of a program for vaccinating young children, even at relatively low vaccine coverage rates, would considerably reduce I-MAARI, particularly if the vaccines can be quickly delivered. |
WOS关键词 | SEASONAL INFLUENZA ; BURDEN ; HOSPITALIZATION ; ENGLAND |
资助项目 | Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research[2018-1-1012] ; NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence[APP1107393] |
WOS研究方向 | Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology ; Immunology |
语种 | 英语 |
出版者 | TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000511724900001 |
资助机构 | Capital's Funds for Health Improvement and Research ; NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence |
源URL | [http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/28602] |
专题 | 自动化研究所_复杂系统管理与控制国家重点实验室_互联网大数据与安全信息学研究中心 |
通讯作者 | Wang, Quanyi |
作者单位 | 1.Univ New South Wales, Sch Publ Hlth & Community Med, Sydney, NSW, Australia 2.Beijing Municipal Ctr Dis Prevent & Control, Inst Infect Dis & Endem Dis Control, 16 Hepingli Middle St, Beijing 100013, Peoples R China 3.Beijing Res Ctr Prevent Med, 16 Hepingli Middle St, Beijing 100013, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Univ New South Wales, Fac Med, Kirby Inst, Sydney, NSW, Australia 6.Arizona State Univ, Coll Publ Serv & Community Solut, Phoenix, AZ USA 7.Arizona State Univ, Coll Hlth Solut, Phoenix, AZ USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Yi,Muscatello, David J.,Cao, Zhidong,et al. A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China[J]. HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS,2020:6. |
APA | Zhang, Yi.,Muscatello, David J..,Cao, Zhidong.,Chughtai, Abrar A..,Costantino, Valentina.,...&MacIntyre, C. Raina.(2020).A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China.HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS,6. |
MLA | Zhang, Yi,et al."A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China".HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS (2020):6. |
入库方式: OAI收割
来源:自动化研究所
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