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Estimation of the Occurrence Probability of Extreme Geomagnetic Storms by Applying Extreme Value Theory to Aa Index

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Chen, Si1,2; Chai, Lihui1,2,3; Xu, Kaihua1,2; Wei, Yong1,2,3; Rong, Zhaojin1,2,3; Wan, Weixing1,2,3
刊名JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS
出版日期2019-12-01
卷号124期号:12页码:9943-9952
ISSN号2169-9380
DOI10.1029/2019JA026947
英文摘要In this work, the occurrence probability of extreme geomagnetic storms is estimated by applying extreme value theory to the geomagnetic activity Aa index. The Aa index has 172 years observation time span, which is much longer than other geomagnetic indices, and thus is more suitable for analysis for rarely occurred extreme geomagnetic storms. We use two newly developed extreme value theory methods, block maxima method and peak over threshold, and find that the extreme geomagnetic storm that happened in March 1989 may happen once per century. This result implies that we should pay more attention to such extreme geomagnetic storms that can cause space weather hazards.
WOS关键词SPACE WEATHER ; STATISTICS
资助项目Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA17010201] ; National Science Foundation of China[41621063] ; National Science Foundation of China[41674177] ; National Science Foundation of China[41874208] ; National Science Foundation of China[41661164034] ; National Science Foundation of China[41621004] ; National Science Foundation of China[41525016]
WOS研究方向Astronomy & Astrophysics
语种英语
出版者AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
WOS记录号WOS:000509195700013
资助机构Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation of China ; National Science Foundation of China
源URL[http://ir.iggcas.ac.cn/handle/132A11/95674]  
专题地质与地球物理研究所_中国科学院地球与行星物理重点实验室
通讯作者Chai, Lihui
作者单位1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth & Planetary Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Key Lab Earth & Planetary Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Innovat Acad Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Chen, Si,Chai, Lihui,Xu, Kaihua,et al. Estimation of the Occurrence Probability of Extreme Geomagnetic Storms by Applying Extreme Value Theory to Aa Index[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS,2019,124(12):9943-9952.
APA Chen, Si,Chai, Lihui,Xu, Kaihua,Wei, Yong,Rong, Zhaojin,&Wan, Weixing.(2019).Estimation of the Occurrence Probability of Extreme Geomagnetic Storms by Applying Extreme Value Theory to Aa Index.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS,124(12),9943-9952.
MLA Chen, Si,et al."Estimation of the Occurrence Probability of Extreme Geomagnetic Storms by Applying Extreme Value Theory to Aa Index".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS 124.12(2019):9943-9952.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地质与地球物理研究所

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