Potential energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction related to China's road transportation
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Lu, Quanying4; Chai, Jian3,5; Wang, Shouyang1,4; Zhang, Zhe George3,6; Sun, Xiaojie Christine2 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020-02-01 |
| 卷号 | 245页码:14 |
| 关键词 | BSEM Energy conservation Emissions reduction Path analysis Road transportation Scenario analysis |
| ISSN号 | 0959-6526 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118892 |
| 英文摘要 | As the largest mode in China's transportation industry, road transportation is the vital part to achieve a goal of congestion and emissions reduction. We analyzed the future development of energy consumption and CO2 emissions associated with road transportation. First, a Bayesian structural equation model (BSEM) was developed to explore the internal relations of total demand, structure, and technology as factors impacting the road transportation system. Second, the core influence factors were screened using path analysis. Finally, a scenario analysis model was established to analyze potential energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction under different conditions. The results show that total demand has the largest direct effect among all influencing factors; however, if we consider indirect influences arising from interactions between latent variables, then traffic structure becomes the most important factor with a combined impact coefficient of -1.63. The respective potential energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction of road transportation are projected to be approximately 65,237.61 ktoe (37.33% rate) and 41 million tons (8.38%) during the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-2020) and reach approximately 91,923.63 ktoe (51.67%) and 68 million tons (12.66%) by 2025. Our results imply that to achieve China's energy conservation and emissions reduction goals, quantity and structure should be emphasized in the short term, whereas technology is critical over the long term. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71874133] ; Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program of Shaanxi Province, China |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000503739400092 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/50451]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| 通讯作者 | Chai, Jian; Wang, Shouyang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Inst Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Calif State Univ Los Angeles, Sch Business & Econ, Los Angeles, CA 90032 USA 3.Western Washington Univ, Coll Business & Econ, Dept Decis Sci, Washington, DC USA 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, 80 Zhongguancun East Rd, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 5.Xidian Univ, Sch Econ & Management, 266 Xinglong Sect Xifeng Rd, Xian 710126, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 6.Simon Fraser Univ, Beedie Sch Business, Burnaby, BC, Canada |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lu, Quanying,Chai, Jian,Wang, Shouyang,et al. Potential energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction related to China's road transportation[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2020,245:14. |
| APA | Lu, Quanying,Chai, Jian,Wang, Shouyang,Zhang, Zhe George,&Sun, Xiaojie Christine.(2020).Potential energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction related to China's road transportation.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,245,14. |
| MLA | Lu, Quanying,et al."Potential energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction related to China's road transportation".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 245(2020):14. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
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