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A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Xie, Gang1; Qian, Yatong1,2; Wang, Shouyang1
刊名ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH
出版日期2020-03-01
卷号81页码:16
关键词Tourism demand Complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise Data characteristic analysis Time series forecasting
ISSN号0160-7383
DOI10.1016/j.annals.2020.102891
英文摘要With the frequent occurrence of irregular events in recent years, the tourism industry in some areas, such as Hong Kong, has suffered great volatility. To enhance the predictive accuracy of tourism demand forecasting, a decomposition-ensemble approach is developed based on the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise, data characteristic analysis, and the Elman's neural network model. Using Hong Kong tourism demand as an empirical case, this study firstly investigates how data characteristic analysis is used in a decomposition-ensemble approach. The empirical results show that the proposed model outperforms other models in both point and interval forecasts for different prediction horizons, indicating the effectiveness of the proposed approach for forecasting tourism demand, especially for time series with complexity.
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[71771207] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71642006] ; National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, CAS
WOS研究方向Social Sciences - Other Topics ; Sociology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000527848700029
出版者PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
源URL[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/51366]  
专题中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者Xie, Gang
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, MDIS, CFS, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Xie, Gang,Qian, Yatong,Wang, Shouyang. A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting[J]. ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH,2020,81:16.
APA Xie, Gang,Qian, Yatong,&Wang, Shouyang.(2020).A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting.ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH,81,16.
MLA Xie, Gang,et al."A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting".ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH 81(2020):16.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：数学与系统科学研究院

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