A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Sun, Yuying1; Zhang, Xun2; Wang, Shouyang3 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020-04-18 |
| 页码 | 17 |
| 关键词 | Decomposed and combined models exports and imports forecasts hierarchy trade structure |
| ISSN号 | 1009-6124 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11424-020-8070-y |
| 英文摘要 | Analyzing the underlying characteristics of trade values movements has attracted much attention in the domestic research. However, the proposed understanding of these characteristics is limited by the intrinsic complexity of the imports/exports. Since economic systems are naturally organized by hierarchies, a novel hierarchical model is proposed in this paper to forecast China's foreign trade. First, the foreign trade data are disaggregated from perspectives of trading partners and trading products, forming two independent hierarchical models with total exports and imports as target variables. Second, a bottom-up strategy is applied. All bottom time series are modelled by corresponding control variables according to trading theories. Forecasts for bottom time series are then combined to generate initial forecasts for total exports and imports. Finally, forecasts for total imports and exports from the two hierarchical models, plus a single VECM model are combined to generate final forecasts. Empirical experiments show that this proposed forecasting model approach significantly outperforms benchmark models and produces consistent forecasts for both total imports and exports or detailed items, which helps a lot for analyzing future trading structure evolution and making foreign trade policies. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71422015] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71573251] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71703156] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Center of Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, CAS ; Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Statistics, Xiamen University[201601] |
| WOS研究方向 | Mathematics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000527448000001 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER HEIDELBERG |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/51372]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Xun |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sun, Yuying,Zhang, Xun,Wang, Shouyang. A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade[J]. JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,2020:17. |
| APA | Sun, Yuying,Zhang, Xun,&Wang, Shouyang.(2020).A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade.JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,17. |
| MLA | Sun, Yuying,et al."A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade".JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY (2020):17. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
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