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A Bayesian In-Play Prediction Model for Association Football Outcomes

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zou, Qingrong1; Song, Kai2,3; Shi, Jian2,3
刊名APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL
出版日期2020-02-01
卷号10期号:8页码:18
关键词bayesian inference point process model in-play prediction betting market adjusting forecast association football
DOI10.3390/app10082904
英文摘要Point process models have made a significant contribution to the prediction of football association outcomes. It is conventionally the case that defence and attack capabilities have been assumed to be constant during a match and estimated against the average performance of all other teams in history. Drawing upon a Bayesian method, this paper proposes a dynamic strength model which relaxes assumption of the constant teams' strengths and permits applying in-match performance information to calibrate them. An empirical study demonstrates that although the Bayesian model fails to achieve improvement in goal difference prediction, it registers clear achievements with regard to the prediction of the total number of goals and Win/Draw/Loss outcome prediction. When the Bayesian model bets against the SBOBet bookmaker, one of the most popular gaming companies among Asian handicaps fans, whose odds data were obtained from both the Win/Draw/Loss market and over-under market, it may obtain positive returns; this clearly contrasts with the process model with constant strengths, which fails to win money from the bookmaker.
资助项目National Major Project[2017ZX06002006]
WOS研究方向Chemistry ; Engineering ; Materials Science ; Physics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000533352100268
出版者MDPI
源URL[http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/51533]  
专题中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者Shi, Jian
作者单位1.Beijing Informat Sci & Technol Univ, Sch Appl Sci, Beijing 100192, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Math Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zou, Qingrong,Song, Kai,Shi, Jian. A Bayesian In-Play Prediction Model for Association Football Outcomes[J]. APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL,2020,10(8):18.
APA Zou, Qingrong,Song, Kai,&Shi, Jian.(2020).A Bayesian In-Play Prediction Model for Association Football Outcomes.APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL,10(8),18.
MLA Zou, Qingrong,et al."A Bayesian In-Play Prediction Model for Association Football Outcomes".APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL 10.8(2020):18.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：数学与系统科学研究院

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