Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures
文献类型:期刊论文
作者 | Guan, Dabo2,3; Wang, Daoping4; Hallegatte, Stephane5; Davis, Steven J.6; Huo, Jingwen2; Li, Shuping7; Bai, Yangchun7; Lei, Tianyang2; Xue, Qianyu7; Coffman, D'Maris3 |
刊名 | NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR |
出版日期 | 2020-06-03 |
页码 | 13 |
ISSN号 | 2397-3374 |
DOI | 10.1038/s41562-020-0896-8 |
英文摘要 | Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A 'go-slow' approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries. Guan et al. analyse the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on global supply chains. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A 'go-slow' approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. |
资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91846301] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41629501] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41921005] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2016YFA0600104] ; Czech Science Foundation under the project VEENEX (GACR)[16-17978S] ; World Bank Group ; Tsinghua University Initiative Scientific Research Program |
WOS研究方向 | Psychology ; Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Neurosciences & Neurology |
语种 | 英语 |
出版者 | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000538496100001 |
源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/51554] |
专题 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
通讯作者 | Guan, Dabo |
作者单位 | 1.Spark Ventures, London, England 2.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.UCL, Bartlett Sch Construct & Project Management, London, England 4.Shanghai Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Urban & Reg Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China 5.World Bank, 1818 H St NW, Washington, DC 20433 USA 6.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA USA 7.Shandong Univ, Inst Blue & Green Dev, Weihai Inst Interdisciplinary Res, Weihai, Peoples R China 8.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Sci & Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China 9.Univ Edinburgh, Business Sch, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland 10.Tsinghua Univ, Ctr Hlth Cities, Inst China Sustainable Urbanizat, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Guan, Dabo,Wang, Daoping,Hallegatte, Stephane,et al. Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures[J]. NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR,2020:13. |
APA | Guan, Dabo.,Wang, Daoping.,Hallegatte, Stephane.,Davis, Steven J..,Huo, Jingwen.,...&Gong, Peng.(2020).Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures.NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR,13. |
MLA | Guan, Dabo,et al."Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures".NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR (2020):13. |
入库方式: OAI收割
来源:数学与系统科学研究院
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