Rainfall threshold for landslide activity in Dazhou, southwest China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Yang, Hongjuan2,3; Wei, Fangqiang4 ; Ma, Zhenfeng1; Guo, Haiyan1; Su, Pengcheng3; Zhang, Shaojie3
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| 刊名 | Landslides
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| 出版日期 | 2020 |
| 卷号 | 17期号:1页码:61-77 |
| ISSN号 | 1612510X |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10346-019-01270-z |
| 英文摘要 | Dazhou is one of the landslide-prone areas in southwest China. Since rainfall is the primary factor responsible for slope instability in this region, empirical rainfall thresholds may be effective for landslide warning. Thresholds using the intraday rainfall and the effective antecedent rainfall up to 7 days prior to landslide occurrence have been defined for this area. The study region was divided into 6 alert zones. For each zone, the daily rainfall and landslide data in the monsoon season during the period of 2003–2010 were analyzed, and the logistic regression method was employed to fit the dataset and provide diverse probability thresholds. Subsequently, the optimal threshold was identified by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Furthermore, two classes of criteria and the associated indicators were used to determine the three rainfall thresholds for the warning model with four classes of alert (i.e., no warning, moderate warning, high warning, and very high warning). Finally, these thresholds were validated with dataset for the period 2011–2015. It suggests that the optimal threshold derived from ROC analysis, with the probability ranging from 4 to 10%, is suitable for issuing moderate warning, while the probability corresponding to the thresholds for high warning and very high warning varies in the ranges 30–55% and 75–95%, respectively. Performance of these thresholds in the period 2011–2015 is comparable to that in the period 2003–2010, indicating the robustness of them and the potential for practical use. © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. |
| 电子版国际标准刊号 | 16125118 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 源URL | [http://119.78.100.138/handle/2HOD01W0/9860]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院重庆绿色智能技术研究院 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Sichuan Climate Center, Chengdu; 610071, China 2.Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu; 610041, China; 3.Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu; 610041, China; 4.Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing; 400714, China; |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yang, Hongjuan,Wei, Fangqiang,Ma, Zhenfeng,et al. Rainfall threshold for landslide activity in Dazhou, southwest China[J]. Landslides,2020,17(1):61-77. |
| APA | Yang, Hongjuan,Wei, Fangqiang,Ma, Zhenfeng,Guo, Haiyan,Su, Pengcheng,&Zhang, Shaojie.(2020).Rainfall threshold for landslide activity in Dazhou, southwest China.Landslides,17(1),61-77. |
| MLA | Yang, Hongjuan,et al."Rainfall threshold for landslide activity in Dazhou, southwest China".Landslides 17.1(2020):61-77. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：重庆绿色智能技术研究院
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