accuracyassessmentsanduncertaintyanalysisofspatiallyexplicitmodelingforlandusecoverchangeandurbanizationacaseinbeijingmetropolitanarea
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang Jie1; Zhou Yinkang2; Li Renqiang3 ; Zhou Zhaojun4; Zhang Liquan1; Shi Qingdong5; Pan Xiaoling5
|
| 刊名 | sciencechinaearthsciences
 |
| 出版日期 | 2010 |
| 卷号 | 53期号:2页码:173 |
| ISSN号 | 1674-7313 |
| 英文摘要 | Spatially explicit modeling plays a vital role in land use/cover change and urbanization research as well as resources management; however, current models lack proper validation and fail to incorporate uncertainty into the formulation of model predictions. Consequently, policy makers and the general public may develop opinions based on potentially misleading research, which fails to allow for truly informed decisions. Here we use an uncertainty strategy of spatially explicit modeling combined with the series statistic of Kappa index for location and quantity to estimate the uncertainty of future predications and to determine model accuracy. We take the Beijing metropolitan area as an example to demonstrate the uncertainty in extrapolations of predictive land use change and urban sprawl with spatially explicit modeling at multiple resolutions. The sensitivity of scale effects is also discussed. The results show that an improvement in specification of location is more helpful in increasing accuracy as compared to an improvement in the specification of quantity at fine spatial resolutions. However, the spatial scale has great effects on modeling accuracy and correct due to chance tends to increase as resolution becomes coarser. The results allow us to understand the uncertainty when using spatially explicit models for land-use change or urbanization estimates |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/79875]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 作者单位 | 1.华东师范大学 2.南京大学 3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 4.Xinjiang Polytechnic College 5.新疆大学 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang Jie,Zhou Yinkang,Li Renqiang,et al. accuracyassessmentsanduncertaintyanalysisofspatiallyexplicitmodelingforlandusecoverchangeandurbanizationacaseinbeijingmetropolitanarea[J]. sciencechinaearthsciences,2010,53(2):173. |
| APA | Zhang Jie.,Zhou Yinkang.,Li Renqiang.,Zhou Zhaojun.,Zhang Liquan.,...&Pan Xiaoling.(2010).accuracyassessmentsanduncertaintyanalysisofspatiallyexplicitmodelingforlandusecoverchangeandurbanizationacaseinbeijingmetropolitanarea.sciencechinaearthsciences,53(2),173. |
| MLA | Zhang Jie,et al."accuracyassessmentsanduncertaintyanalysisofspatiallyexplicitmodelingforlandusecoverchangeandurbanizationacaseinbeijingmetropolitanarea".sciencechinaearthsciences 53.2(2010):173. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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