changesinproductionpotentialsofrapeseedintheyangtzeriverbasinofchinaunderclimatechangeamultimodelensembleapproach
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhong Honglin3; Liang Zhuoran4; Ficsher Gunther1; Tian Zhan5; Ji Yinghao5; Sun Laixiang3; Xu Xinliang2 ; Fan Dongli5
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| 刊名 | journalofgeographicalsciences
 |
| 出版日期 | 2018 |
| 卷号 | 28期号:11页码:1700 |
| ISSN号 | 1009-637X |
| 英文摘要 | Rapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change. The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China. Therefore, a better understanding of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production in the basin is of both scientific and practical importance to Chinese oil industry and food security. In this study, based on climate data from 5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with 4 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in 2011-2040 (2020s), 2041-2070 (2050s) and 2071-2100 (2080s), we assessed the changes in rapeseed production potential between the baseline climatology of 1981-2010 and the future climatology of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. The key modelling tool - the AEZ model - was updated and validated based on the observation records of 10 representative sites in the basin. Our simulations revealed that: (1) the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production increases with time; (2) in the middle of this century (2050s), total rapeseed production would increase significantly; (3) the average production potential increase in the 2050s for the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is 0.939, 1.639 and 0.339 million tons respectively; (4) areas showing most significant increases in production include southern Shaanxi, central and eastern Hubei, northern Hunan, central Anhui and eastern Jiangsu. |
| 资助项目 | [National Natural Science Foundation of China] ; [China's National Science & Technology Pillar Program] |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/92143]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 作者单位 | 1.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis 2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 3.马里兰大学学院市分校 4.Hangzhou Meteorological Bureau 5.上海应用技术大学 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhong Honglin,Liang Zhuoran,Ficsher Gunther,et al. changesinproductionpotentialsofrapeseedintheyangtzeriverbasinofchinaunderclimatechangeamultimodelensembleapproach[J]. journalofgeographicalsciences,2018,28(11):1700. |
| APA | Zhong Honglin.,Liang Zhuoran.,Ficsher Gunther.,Tian Zhan.,Ji Yinghao.,...&Fan Dongli.(2018).changesinproductionpotentialsofrapeseedintheyangtzeriverbasinofchinaunderclimatechangeamultimodelensembleapproach.journalofgeographicalsciences,28(11),1700. |
| MLA | Zhong Honglin,et al."changesinproductionpotentialsofrapeseedintheyangtzeriverbasinofchinaunderclimatechangeamultimodelensembleapproach".journalofgeographicalsciences 28.11(2018):1700. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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