Quantitative analysis of climate change impact on Zhangye City's economy based on the perspective of surface runoff
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Yu2,3; Hu, Xiaohong4; Wu, Feng5; Chen, Bin1; Liu, Yawen2,3; Yang, Shunxiang2,3; Weng, Zhixiong6 |
| 刊名 | ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-10-01 |
| 卷号 | 105页码:645-654 |
| 关键词 | GCM CGE model Climate change Surface runoff Economic impact |
| ISSN号 | 1470-160X |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.06.059 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Yu(liuyu@casipm.ac.cn) ; Chen, Bin(chenb@bnu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Zhangye City is a representative agricultural city in China where agriculture depends heavily on precipitation in the Heihe River Basin; water use for agriculture plays a key role in the sustainable development of total water resources. This study, based on the predicted surface runoff by GCM, uses a CGE model with a water-land resources account, to analyze the impact of climate change on Zhangye City's economy and agricultural water consumption. The results show that climate change increases surface runoff by 8.84%. The increasing surface runoff contributes most to the total water consumption, increasing by 8.11% accompanied by a small GDP expansion of 0.12%. Relative to the industrial structure, agricultural sectors benefit most. Contrarily, export-oriented industrial sectors see a decrease in benefit, resulting in employment migrating to lower value-added agricultural sectors. From the water types, the consumption for underground and other water also rise by 6.69% and 5.73% respectively, due to the economic scale expansion effect of the agricultural sectors. For varieties of crops, grain crops consume more water because of its greater water intensity. And the land is mostly transferred from economic crops to grain crops. Therefore, the government should pay attention to changes in the consumption propensity of water resources, continue to promote agricultural water-saving measures and the adjustment of agricultural planting structure. |
| WOS关键词 | WATER-USE EFFICIENCY ; FARMING SYSTEMS ; HEIHE RIVER ; IRRIGATION ; AGRICULTURE ; CHINA ; PRODUCTIVITY ; INCREASE ; DROUGHT ; LEVEL |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602500] ; Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of Science[91325302] |
| WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000490574200059 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of Science |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/129691]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Yu; Chen, Bin |
| 作者单位 | 1.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Joint Lab Environm Simulat & Pollut Con, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Sci & Dev, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Publ Policy & Management, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.Beijing Inst Technol, Sch Management & Econ, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Chinese Agr Policy, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 6.Renmin Univ China, Sch Environm & Nat Resources, Beijing 100872, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Yu,Hu, Xiaohong,Wu, Feng,et al. Quantitative analysis of climate change impact on Zhangye City's economy based on the perspective of surface runoff[J]. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,2019,105:645-654. |
| APA | Liu, Yu.,Hu, Xiaohong.,Wu, Feng.,Chen, Bin.,Liu, Yawen.,...&Weng, Zhixiong.(2019).Quantitative analysis of climate change impact on Zhangye City's economy based on the perspective of surface runoff.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,105,645-654. |
| MLA | Liu, Yu,et al."Quantitative analysis of climate change impact on Zhangye City's economy based on the perspective of surface runoff".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 105(2019):645-654. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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