Projection of spatiotemporal patterns and possible changes of drought in the Yellow River basin, China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Ma, Mingwei1,2; Cui, Huijuan3; Wang, Wenchuan1; Huang, Xudong1; Tu, Xinjun4 |
| 刊名 | THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-11-01 |
| 卷号 | 138期号:3-4页码:1971-1989 |
| 关键词 | Drought Climate change CMIP5 VIC hydrologic model SPDI-JDI Bivariate return period Yellow River basin |
| ISSN号 | 0177-798X |
| DOI | 10.1007/s00704-019-02914-9 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Wenchuan(wangwen1621@163.com) |
| 英文摘要 | Drought projection is of critical significance for designing long-term drought adaptation strategies to cope with changing climate. This study presents an application of multi-class models for characterizing future droughts in the Yellow River basin (YRB). Using meteorological observations and simulations of three CMIP5 climatic models as input into VIC hydrologic model, the standardized Palmer drought index-based joint drought index (SPDI-JDI) is calculated to investigate spatiotemporal patterns and possible changes of future drought in the YRB, through an approach of bivariate modeling and analysis. It is concluded that moderate drought will be alleviated with decreased duration and severity, but extreme drought risk is likely to increase for future climate scenarios (2021-2050) relative to baseline period (1961-2000). From the perspective of bivariate analyses, the concurrence probability of drought events with extreme duration and severity might rise in the future, while increasing variability and heterogeneity of duration, severity and bivariate joint/concurrent return period would also increase the stochastic occurrence of extreme drought over time and space. These findings can provide insights into projection of climate change impacts on drought trends for the next 30 years, and help to preparations for strict control of socio-economic water consumption as well as eco-environmental protection and restoration in the YRB. |
| WOS关键词 | HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT ; EXTREMES INDEXES ; CLIMATE ; MODEL ; CMIP5 ; PRECIPITATION ; WATER ; SIMULATIONS ; RUNOFF |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41701022] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41730654] ; Open Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering[2017491011] ; Henan Province University Scientific and Technological Innovation Team[18IRTSTHN009] ; Henan Province Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation and Treatment[2017016] |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000494710000052 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER WIEN |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Open Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering ; Henan Province University Scientific and Technological Innovation Team ; Henan Province Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation and Treatment |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/130953]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Wenchuan |
| 作者单位 | 1.North China Univ Water Resources & Elect Power, Sch Water Conservancy, Zhengzhou 450046, Henan, Peoples R China 2.Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Ctr Water Resources & Environm, Sch Civil Engn, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ma, Mingwei,Cui, Huijuan,Wang, Wenchuan,et al. Projection of spatiotemporal patterns and possible changes of drought in the Yellow River basin, China[J]. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,2019,138(3-4):1971-1989. |
| APA | Ma, Mingwei,Cui, Huijuan,Wang, Wenchuan,Huang, Xudong,&Tu, Xinjun.(2019).Projection of spatiotemporal patterns and possible changes of drought in the Yellow River basin, China.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,138(3-4),1971-1989. |
| MLA | Ma, Mingwei,et al."Projection of spatiotemporal patterns and possible changes of drought in the Yellow River basin, China".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 138.3-4(2019):1971-1989. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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