Projections of drought characteristics in China based on a standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index and multiple GCMs
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Yao, Ning1,2; Li, Linchao1; Feng, Puyu3; Feng, Hao4; Liu, De Li5,6; Liu, Yang1; Jiang, Kongtao1; Hu, Xiaotao1,2; Li, Yi1,2 |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
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| 出版日期 | 2020-02-20 |
| 卷号 | 704页码:18 |
| 关键词 | China Drought Projection Global climate model Drought characteristics Standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index |
| ISSN号 | 0048-9697 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135245 |
| 通讯作者 | Hu, Xiaotao(huxiaotao11@nwsuaf.edu.cn) ; Li, Yi(liyi@nwsuaf.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Droughts have destructive impacts on agricultural production; thus, drought projections are vital for the development of future drought mitigation strategies. This work aimed to project a standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 3-, 6- and 12-month timescales for the period 2011-2100 under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios - RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in mainland China and to assess the changes in various drought indices over a baseline period of 1961-2000. The spatiotemporal variations in drought characteristics (e.g., the drought occurrence time, duration, severity, peak, and frequency and the percentage of stations suffering from drought (PSSD) were estimated by the projected SPEI for the periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The results showed that mainland China would experience more frequent and severe droughts in the future than in the baseline period, as denoted by SPEI and the generated drought variables. In particular, drier areas of northwestern China were likely to suffer from worse drought conditions than those in other areas, with PSSD values of 60% and 81% by 2100 under the RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Although the annual precipitation was projected to increase in most regions, drought conditions would still worsen because of increased the minimum and maximum air temperatures. However, the GCMs contributed more uncertainties to the projection of the SPEI than the stations or the RCPs, because the GCMs made a larger contribution to the variance (>40%). The SPEI performed better than the other indices that only accounted for the influence of a single variable. The relationship between crop yields and the three drought indices varied by month, crop (maize and cotton), and timescale (3- and 6-month). The drought projections from our study can provide invaluable information for stakeholders in developing regionally specific drought adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT ; ARIDITY INDEX ; IMPACT ; UNCERTAINTY ; PERFORMANCE ; YIELD ; VARIABILITY ; EVOLUTION ; SEVERITY |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Plan in China[2017YFC0403303] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[2452019178] ; Foreign Experts Introduction Project[G20190027163] ; China 111 project[B12007] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000504672800114 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Plan in China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; Foreign Experts Introduction Project ; China 111 project |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/131028]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Hu, Xiaotao; Li, Yi |
| 作者单位 | 1.Northwest Agr & Forestry Univ, Coll Water Resources & Architectural Engn, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 2.Northwest Agr & Forestry Univ, Educ Minist, Key Lab Agr Water & Soil Engn, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 3.Univ Technol Sydney, Sch Life Sci, Fac Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia 4.Chinese Acad Sci & Minist Water Resources, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 5.Wagga Wagga Agr Inst, NSW Dept Primary Ind, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia 6.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yao, Ning,Li, Linchao,Feng, Puyu,et al. Projections of drought characteristics in China based on a standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index and multiple GCMs[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2020,704:18. |
| APA | Yao, Ning.,Li, Linchao.,Feng, Puyu.,Feng, Hao.,Liu, De Li.,...&Li, Yi.(2020).Projections of drought characteristics in China based on a standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index and multiple GCMs.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,704,18. |
| MLA | Yao, Ning,et al."Projections of drought characteristics in China based on a standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index and multiple GCMs".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 704(2020):18. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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