Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events over East Asia at Different Global Warming Levels
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Jintao1,2; Wang, Fang1
|
| 刊名 | WATER
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-12-01 |
| 卷号 | 11期号:12页码:12 |
| 关键词 | climate extremes projection global warming risk of climate change generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution |
| DOI | 10.3390/w11122535 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Fang(wangf@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Limiting the global temperature increase to a level that would prevent "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" is the focus of intergovernmental climate negotiations, and the cost-benefit analysis to determine this level requires an understanding of how the risk associated with climate extremes varies with different warming levels. We examine daily extreme temperature and precipitation variances with continuous global warming using a non-stationary extreme value statistical model based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Our results show the probability of extreme warm and heavy precipitation events over East Asia (EA) will increase, while that of cold extremes over EA will decrease as global warming increases. A present-day 1-in-20-year heavy precipitation extreme in EA is projected to increase to 1.3, 1.6, 2.5, and 3.4 times more frequently of the current climatology, at the global mean warming levels of 1.5 degrees C, 2 degrees C, 3 degrees C, and 4 degrees C above the preindustrial era, respectively. Moreover, the relative changes in probability are larger for rarer events. These results contribute to an improved understanding of the future risk associated with climate extremes, which helps scientists create mitigation measures for global warming and facilitates policy-making. |
| WOS关键词 | 1.5 DEGREES-C ; PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; TEMPERATURE ; CMIP5 ; INDEXES ; 1.5-DEGREES-C ; CHINA |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602704] ; Strategic Leading Science and Technology Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20020202] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771050] |
| WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000507378600108 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Strategic Leading Science and Technology Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/131623]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Fang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Jintao,Wang, Fang. Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events over East Asia at Different Global Warming Levels[J]. WATER,2019,11(12):12. |
| APA | Zhang, Jintao,&Wang, Fang.(2019).Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events over East Asia at Different Global Warming Levels.WATER,11(12),12. |
| MLA | Zhang, Jintao,et al."Changes in the Risk of Extreme Climate Events over East Asia at Different Global Warming Levels".WATER 11.12(2019):12. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。