Scenario Modeling of Urbanization Development and Water Scarcity Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Bao, Chao1,2,3 ; He, Dongmei1,2,3
|
| 刊名 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-10-01 |
| 卷号 | 16期号:20页码:19 |
| 关键词 | urban agglomeration healthy urbanization water scarcity water pollution system dynamics scenario simulation |
| DOI | 10.3390/ijerph16203834 |
| 通讯作者 | Bao, Chao(baoc@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Due to the accelerated process of urbanization in China, urban agglomerations have become the core areas for human settlement and economic development. High population and economic density has brought great pressure on water supply. Water scarcity is increasingly becoming one of the most important issues for the sustainable and healthy development of China's urban agglomerations. In this paper, a system dynamics model was constructed to simulate the current conditions and future scenarios of urbanization development and water scarcity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration in 2000-2030, by examining the interaction and feedback between the six major subsystems: water supply, water demand, water pollution, population urbanization, economic urbanization, and land urbanization. It is found that the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the improved Reclaimed Water Reuse System may greatly increase the water supply. However, the speed of population urbanization and economic growth, the spatial structure of urban agglomeration and the water consumption pattern may determine the water demand. Although all scenarios may risk water scarcity in the future at some point, we could detect a comprehensive and relatively rational scenario to balance water scarcity, regional equity, and efficiency. It might help to synthetically understand the coordinated development mode between urbanization and water resources in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration, and provide a useful analytical and decision support tool for scientists and policy-makers to achieve the sustainable urbanization development and water resource management. |
| WOS关键词 | RESOURCES CONSTRAINT FORCE ; RAPID URBANIZATION ; SIMULATION-MODEL ; HEXI CORRIDOR ; MANAGEMENT ; CHALLENGES ; PROGRESS ; QUALITY ; GROWTH |
| 资助项目 | Major Projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China[41590844] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41571156] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20040401] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000494779100048 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 资助机构 | Major Projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/131708]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Bao, Chao |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resource Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Reg Sustainable Dev Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bao, Chao,He, Dongmei. Scenario Modeling of Urbanization Development and Water Scarcity Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,2019,16(20):19. |
| APA | Bao, Chao,&He, Dongmei.(2019).Scenario Modeling of Urbanization Development and Water Scarcity Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,16(20),19. |
| MLA | Bao, Chao,et al."Scenario Modeling of Urbanization Development and Water Scarcity Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 16.20(2019):19. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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