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Modeling Intersecting Processes of Wetland Shrinkage and Urban Expansion by a Time-Varying Methodology

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Xu, Erqi1; Chen, Yimeng2
刊名SUSTAINABILITY
出版日期2019-09-01
卷号11期号:18页码:24
关键词wetland loss urban expansion dynamic model intersecting process tradeoff analysis
DOI10.3390/su11184953
通讯作者Xu, Erqi(xueq@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Chen, Yimeng(ymchen@hzu.edu.cn)
英文摘要Continuous urban expansion worldwide has resulted in significant wetland degradation and loss. A limited number of studies have addressed the coupling of wetland and urban dynamics, but this relationship remains unclear. In this study, a time-varying methodology of predicting wetland distribution was developed to support decision-making. The novelty of the methodology is its ability to dynamically simulate wetland shrinkage together with urban expansion and reveal conflicts and potential tradeoffs under different scenarios. The developed methodology consists of three modules: a historical change detection of wetland and urban areas module, a spatial urban sprawl simulation and forecasting module that can accommodate different development priorities, and a wetland distribution module with time-varying logistic regression. The methodology was applied and tested in the Tonghu Wetland as a case study. The wetland and urban extents presented a spatially intersecting shift, where wetlands lost more than 40% of their area from 1977 to 2017, while urban areas expanded by 10-fold, threatening wetlands. The increase in the relative importance metric of the time-varying regression model indicated an enhanced influence of urban expansion on the wetland. An accuracy assessment validated a robust statistical result and a good visual fit between spatially distributed wetland occurrence probabilities and the actual distribution of wetland. Incorporating the new variable of urban expansion improved modeling performance and, particularly, realized a greater ability to predict potential wetland loss than provided by the traditional method. Future wetland loss probabilities were visualized under different scenarios. The historical trend scenario predicted continuously expanding urban growth and wetland shrinkage to 2030. However, a specific urban development strategy scenario was designed interactively to control the potential wetland loss. Consideration of such scenarios can facilitate identifying tradeoffs to support wetland conservation.
WOS关键词LAND-COVER CHANGE ; RIVER DELTA ; CELLULAR-AUTOMATON ; URBANIZATION ; GROWTH ; SIMULATION ; DYNAMICS ; IMPACT ; DEFORESTATION ; DISTURBANCE
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[41601095] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19040305] ; Huizhou's Science and Technology Special Fund Project[2016X0436051] ; Provincial Key Education-Specialty Innovation Research Project of Guangdong[2018KTSCX216]
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000489104700139
出版者MDPI
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Huizhou's Science and Technology Special Fund Project ; Provincial Key Education-Specialty Innovation Research Project of Guangdong
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/131972]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Xu, Erqi; Chen, Yimeng
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Huizhou Univ, Sch Geog & Tourism, Huizhou 516007, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Xu, Erqi,Chen, Yimeng. Modeling Intersecting Processes of Wetland Shrinkage and Urban Expansion by a Time-Varying Methodology[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2019,11(18):24.
APA Xu, Erqi,&Chen, Yimeng.(2019).Modeling Intersecting Processes of Wetland Shrinkage and Urban Expansion by a Time-Varying Methodology.SUSTAINABILITY,11(18),24.
MLA Xu, Erqi,et al."Modeling Intersecting Processes of Wetland Shrinkage and Urban Expansion by a Time-Varying Methodology".SUSTAINABILITY 11.18(2019):24.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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