River flow characteristics and changes under the influence of varying climate conditions
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Meresa, Hadush Kidane1,2 |
| 刊名 | NATURAL RESOURCE MODELING
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-09-30 |
| 页码 | 30 |
| 关键词 | climate change flood hydrological extreme Poland water management |
| ISSN号 | 0890-8575 |
| DOI | 10.1111/nrm.12242 |
| 通讯作者 | Meresa, Hadush Kidane(kidane.hadush@gmail.com) |
| 英文摘要 | This study aims at the spatial-temporal evaluation of projected hydrological flow characteristics under varying climate projections driven by RCP 4.5 scenario for 10 selected catchments in Poland using deterministic and stochastic concepts: to assess dependency characteristics of flow variables; to classify flood type regimes using flood duration and magnitude; and to assess and evaluate the changes in hydrological characteristics in the near and far future periods. The results show a stronger correlation between the hydrological flow variables in the mountainous catchments than lowland located catchments. While flood volume and number of events have moderate dependency due to the role of groundwater plays a major role on the water balance of the catchment. Both, peak flow and flood duration are occurred more frequent and prolonged in most of the selected catchments in Poland but were relatively small in Guber and Narewka catchments. Quantiles of peak flow and duration were estimated and associated uncertainty was identified for each catchment, which is crucial for hydraulic infrastructure design and flood adaptation and protection. Recommendations for water resource managers and the scientific community It is important to correct raw climate model outputs using distributed quantile mapping technique and its use to simulate projected river flow to minimize the climate model uncertainty. Always it is better to compare the flow quantiles derived from a peak over the threshold and annual maximum time series for hydraulic structure design and infrastructure development in specific catchment. A changing climate leads to accelerated flood occurrence, intensity, duration, volume, number of events, and magnitude, which can affect the stability of infrastructure and economic development of the area. The results obtained presented some reference information which can serve as grounds for basing the hydrological modeling, extreme management, and water resources design and planning. It can be concluded that the assortment of changes is mainly related to river flow dynamics and regimes in the catchments. The extracted variables together with design hydrological flow variable should be used to assess future climate change impact risk management and adaptation, management using flow recurrence probability, thereby reducing the risk of failure in the future. & x2713;& x2713;& x2713;& x2713;& x2713; |
| WOS关键词 | FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; FLOODS ; PROJECTIONS ; EUROPE ; UNCERTAINTY ; INDEXES ; RISK |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000492199100001 |
| 出版者 | WILEY |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/132059]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Meresa, Hadush Kidane |
| 作者单位 | 1.Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Hydrol & Water Resource, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Ethiopian Construct Design Supervis Work Corp, Hydroinformat, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Meresa, Hadush Kidane. River flow characteristics and changes under the influence of varying climate conditions[J]. NATURAL RESOURCE MODELING,2019:30. |
| APA | Meresa, Hadush Kidane.(2019).River flow characteristics and changes under the influence of varying climate conditions.NATURAL RESOURCE MODELING,30. |
| MLA | Meresa, Hadush Kidane."River flow characteristics and changes under the influence of varying climate conditions".NATURAL RESOURCE MODELING (2019):30. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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