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Multiple possibilities for future precipitation changes in Asia under the Paris Agreement

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhang, Jintao1,2; Wang, Fang1; Tokarska, Katarzyna B.3; Yang, Zongliang4
刊名INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
出版日期2020-02-05
页码15
关键词dry spells extreme events extreme precipitation exposure INDC pledge precipitation
ISSN号0899-8418
DOI10.1002/joc.6495
通讯作者Wang, Fang(wangf@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Future precipitation changes impact the availability of water resources and related flood and drought events. Recent studies have focused on the variations in precipitation based on the Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios, which do not reflect the current mitigation commitments of the Paris Agreement to stabilize the global mean temperature below the 2.0 degrees C threshold. This paper analyzes the Asian precipitation response to emissions scenarios from warming. This response is a result of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) pledges (as of August 2018), which would satisfy the Paris Agreement target over the next few decades. Our results demonstrate that by the end of 21st century, mean precipitation in Asia will increase by 12.9% (11.7-14.7%) for a delayed action (No-policy) scenario, 8.0% (6.7-8.8%) for a continued mitigation action (continued INDC-pledge) scenario, and 2.4% (1.9-3.5%) and 4.4% (3.7-5.4%) for scenarios that stabilize the global mean temperature at the 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C levels, respectively. The spatial heterogeneity of precipitation changes, however, reflects the complexity of precipitation responses in future climate projections. Furthermore, heavy rainfall events will become stronger as warming increases; however, the trend of dry spell events varies depending on the region. Considering the impacts of precipitation-related extremes, we determined that the projected population exposure to heavy rainfall and dry spell events will significantly increase in most Asian regions. Limiting warming to lower levels (such as 1.5 or 2.0 degrees C) would reduce the population exposure to heavy rainfall, thereby avoiding impacts associated with precipitation extremes. These results contribute to an improved understanding of the risks related to future climate extremes. Such information is crucial for planning mitigation and adaptation activities in Asia, which is home to nearly 60% of the global population.
WOS关键词1.5 DEGREES-C ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; EXTREMES ; IMPACTS ; 1.5-DEGREES-C ; TEMPERATURE ; EMISSIONS ; 2-DEGREES-C ; INDEXES ; RISK
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program of China[2019YFC0507805] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602704] ; Strategic Leading Science and Technology Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20020202] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41771050]
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000511041200001
出版者WILEY
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Strategic Leading Science and Technology Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/132218]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Wang, Fang
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Univ Edinburgh, Sch GeoSci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland
4.Univ Texas Austin, Jackson Sch Geosci, Austin, TX 78712 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhang, Jintao,Wang, Fang,Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,et al. Multiple possibilities for future precipitation changes in Asia under the Paris Agreement[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2020:15.
APA Zhang, Jintao,Wang, Fang,Tokarska, Katarzyna B.,&Yang, Zongliang.(2020).Multiple possibilities for future precipitation changes in Asia under the Paris Agreement.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,15.
MLA Zhang, Jintao,et al."Multiple possibilities for future precipitation changes in Asia under the Paris Agreement".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2020):15.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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