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Climate factors and the East Asian summer monsoon may drive large outbreaks of dengue in China

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Liu, Keke2,3; Hou, Xiang1; Ren, Zhoupeng4; Lowe, Rachel5,6,7; Wang, Yiguan8; Li, Ruiyun9; Liu, Xiaobo2; Sun, Jimin10; Lu, Liang2; Song, Xiupin2
刊名ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH
出版日期2020-04-01
卷号183页码:8
ISSN号0013-9351
关键词Dengue EASM Climate variables Ecological niche model Generalised additive model
DOI10.1016/j.envres.2020.109190
通讯作者Li, Jianping(ljp@ouc.edu.cn) ; Xu, Lei(xulei@icdc.cn) ; Liu, Qiyong(liuqiyong@icdc.cn)
英文摘要Objective: To investigate the relationship between climate variables, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and large outbreaks of dengue in China. Methods: We constructed ecological niche models (ENMs) to analyse the influence of climate factors on dengue occurrence and predict dengue outbreak areas in China. Furthermore, we formulated a generalised additive model (GAM) to quantify the impact of the EASM on dengue occurrence in mainland China from 1980 to 2016. Results: Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter had a 62.6% contribution to dengue outbreaks. Southern China including Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Yunnan provinces are more vulnerable to dengue emergence and resurgence. In addition, we found population density had a 68.7% contribution to dengue widely distribution in China using ENMs. Statistical analysis indicated a dome-shaped association between EASM and dengue outbreak using GAM, with the greatest impact in the South-East of China. Besides, there was a positive nonlinear association between monthly average temperature and dengue occurrence. Conclusion: We demonstrated the influence of climate factors and East Asian summer monsoon on dengue outbreaks, providing a framework for future studies on the association between climate change and vector-borne diseases.
WOS关键词GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION ; RISK ; OSCILLATION ; VARIABLES ; DISTRICT ; BRAZIL ; FEVER ; AREAS
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC1200803] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC1200802] ; National Basic Research Program of China[2012CB955504] ; China Prosperity Strategic Programme Fund (SPF)[15LCI1] ; Shaanxi Key Research and Development Program[2018NY-135] ; Major Science Project of Shaanxi Academy of Science[2018K-04]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
语种英语
出版者ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
WOS记录号WOS:000526177500019
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Basic Research Program of China ; China Prosperity Strategic Programme Fund (SPF) ; Shaanxi Key Research and Development Program ; Major Science Project of Shaanxi Academy of Science
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/133941]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Li, Jianping; Xu, Lei; Liu, Qiyong
作者单位1.Shaanxi Inst Zool, Shaanxi Key Lab Anim Conservat, Xian 710032, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Diag & Treatment Infect Di, Natl Inst Communicable Dis Control & Prevent, State Key Lab Infect Dis Prevent & Control, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
3.Shandong First Med Univ, Shandong Acad Clin Med, Prov Hosp, Jinan 250021, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Math Modelling Infect Dis, London, England
6.London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Climate Change & Planetary Hlth, London, England
7.Barcelona Inst Global Hlth ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
8.Univ Queensland, Sch Biol Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia
9.Imperial Coll London, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, Sch Publ Hlth,Fac Med, London W2 1PG, England
10.Zhejiang Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Hangzhou, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Liu, Keke,Hou, Xiang,Ren, Zhoupeng,et al. Climate factors and the East Asian summer monsoon may drive large outbreaks of dengue in China[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH,2020,183:8.
APA Liu, Keke.,Hou, Xiang.,Ren, Zhoupeng.,Lowe, Rachel.,Wang, Yiguan.,...&Liu, Qiyong.(2020).Climate factors and the East Asian summer monsoon may drive large outbreaks of dengue in China.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH,183,8.
MLA Liu, Keke,et al."Climate factors and the East Asian summer monsoon may drive large outbreaks of dengue in China".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 183(2020):8.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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