Recent behavior and possible future evolution of the glacieret in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains under conditions of climate warming
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Nojarov, Peter; Gachev, Emil; Grunewald, Karsten |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019 |
| 卷号 | 16期号:1页码:16-29 |
| 关键词 | Climate warming Glacieret Pirin Mountains Statistical modeling Glacieret area Projection |
| ISSN号 | 1672-6316 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11629-018-4957-7 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | This research reveals relationships between climate variables and inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret located in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains. The study period is 1993-2017. The correlations are identified using statistical methods. Also, a statistical model is constructed, including some climate variables as predictors. Despite the evident decrease of the glacieret's size in the period from the 1950s onwards, the long-term trends for the last decades have been insignificant. The main climatic factors influencing the inter-annual dynamics in the area of the glacieret are air temperature, precipitation, zonal and meridional winds and relative humidity. With respect to the dynamics in the area of the glacieret, the important trends in the different climate variables are those of the warm period air temperatures and zonal (u) wind. They also determine to a great extent its future development by acting in two opposite directions-rising temperatures in the warm period will lead to a rapid decrease of its area by the end of the melting season, while the change of wind direction from west to east in the warm period will increase its area. The influence of the zonal wind in the warm period is explained mainly by the location of the glacieret in the cirque. Generally, the glacieret is tilted downwards from west to east. Thus, westerly winds facilitate blowing away the snow from the surface of the glacieret, assisting its melting in the warm period. Easterly winds do not have such an effect. The combination of the opposite effects of these two most important climate variables leads to the most likely scenario for the future development of the glacieret, according to which by the middle of this century it is expected to turn into a semi-permanent snow patch, which disappears after some summers, and by the end of the century to completely melt every year before the end of the melting season. |
| 电子版国际标准刊号 | 1993-0321 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000456251500002 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/46405]  |
| 专题 | Journal of Mountain Science_Journal of Mountain Science-2019_Vol 16 No.1 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nojarov, Peter,Gachev, Emil,Grunewald, Karsten. Recent behavior and possible future evolution of the glacieret in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains under conditions of climate warming[J]. JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,2019,16(1):16-29. |
| APA | Nojarov, Peter,Gachev, Emil,&Grunewald, Karsten.(2019).Recent behavior and possible future evolution of the glacieret in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains under conditions of climate warming.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,16(1),16-29. |
| MLA | Nojarov, Peter,et al."Recent behavior and possible future evolution of the glacieret in the cirque Golemiya Kazan in the Pirin Mountains under conditions of climate warming".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 16.1(2019):16-29. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：成都山地灾害与环境研究所
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