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Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations

文献类型：期刊论文

作者de Nooijer, Wesley19,20; Zhang, Qiong19,20; Li, Qiang19,20; Zhang, Qiang19,20; Li, Xiangyu17,18; Zhang, Zhongshi16,17,18; Guo, Chuncheng17; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.17; Haywood, Alan M.15; Tindall, Julia C.15
刊名CLIMATE OF THE PAST
出版日期2020-11-23
卷号16期号:6页码:2325-2341
ISSN号1814-9324
DOI10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020
英文摘要Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60-90 degrees N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 degrees C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multimodel mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 degrees C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from -3.0 to -10.4 x 10(6) km(2), with a MMM anomaly of -5.6 x 10 6 km(2), which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer seaice-free conditions (<= 1 x 10(6) km(2)) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data-model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
WOS关键词SEA-ICE-ALBEDO ; MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION ; SURFACE TEMPERATURES ; PLIOMIP2 SIMULATIONS ; POLAR AMPLIFICATION ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; SOUTHERN-OCEAN ; MODEL ; WARMTH ; SENSITIVITY
资助项目Vetenskapsradet[2013-06476] ; Vetenskapsradet[2017-04232]
WOS研究方向Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000593008400001
出版者COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
资助机构Vetenskapsradet ; Vetenskapsradet ; Vetenskapsradet ; Vetenskapsradet ; Vetenskapsradet ; Vetenskapsradet ; Vetenskapsradet ; Vetenskapsradet
源URL[http://ir.iggcas.ac.cn/handle/132A11/98654]  
专题地质与地球物理研究所_中国科学院新生代地质与环境重点实验室
通讯作者Zhang, Qiong
作者单位1.UCL, Dept Geog, London, England
2.Univ Tsukuba, Fac Life & Environm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
3.Univ Tokyo, Ctr Earth Surface Syst Dynam CESD, Atmosphere & Ocean Res Inst AORI, Tokyo, Japan
4.Univ Toronto, Dept Phys, Toronto, ON, Canada
5.Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res Utrecht IMAU, Utrecht, Netherlands
6.Univ Utrecht, Ctr Complex Syst Sci, Utrecht, Netherlands
7.Univ Paris Saclay, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, LSCE, CEA,CNRS,UVSQ,IPSL, Gif Sur Yvette, France
8.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Key Lab Cenozo Geol & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China
9.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA
10.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY 10027 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 de Nooijer, Wesley,Zhang, Qiong,Li, Qiang,et al. Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations[J]. CLIMATE OF THE PAST,2020,16(6):2325-2341.
APA de Nooijer, Wesley.,Zhang, Qiong.,Li, Qiang.,Zhang, Qiang.,Li, Xiangyu.,...&Brierley, Chris M..(2020).Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations.CLIMATE OF THE PAST,16(6),2325-2341.
MLA de Nooijer, Wesley,et al."Evaluation of Arctic warming in mid-Pliocene climate simulations".CLIMATE OF THE PAST 16.6(2020):2325-2341.

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来源：地质与地球物理研究所

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