The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity
文献类型:期刊论文
作者 | Haywood, Alan M.19; Tindall, Julia C.19; Dowsett, Harry J.18; Dolan, Aisling M.19; Foley, Kevin M.18; Hunter, Stephen J.19; Hill, Daniel J.19; Chan, Wing-Le17; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako17; Stepanek, Christian16 |
刊名 | CLIMATE OF THE PAST |
出版日期 | 2020-11-04 |
卷号 | 16期号:6页码:2095-2123 |
ISSN号 | 1814-9324 |
DOI | 10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 |
英文摘要 | The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near similar to 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 degrees C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 degrees C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %-13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 degrees C over land and 2.8 degrees C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60 degrees N and 60 degrees S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6-4.8 degrees C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports. |
WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; PLIOMIP EXPERIMENTAL-DESIGN ; SIMPLE BIOSPHERE MODEL ; OCEAN HEAT TRANSPORTS ; PERMANENT EL-NINO ; SEA-ICE MODEL ; MID-PLIOCENE ; COUPLED MODEL ; ECMWF MODEL ; CIRCULATION |
资助项目 | Past Earth Network (EPSRC)[EP/M008.363/1] |
WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
语种 | 英语 |
出版者 | COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000589260100002 |
资助机构 | Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) ; Past Earth Network (EPSRC) |
源URL | [http://ir.iggcas.ac.cn/handle/132A11/98705] |
专题 | 地质与地球物理研究所_中国科学院新生代地质与环境重点实验室 |
通讯作者 | Tindall, Julia C. |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol BS8 1QU, Avon, England 2.Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res Utrecht IMAU, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands 3.Univ Utrecht, Ctr Complex Syst Sci, NL-3584 CS Utrecht, Netherlands 4.Univ Connecticut, Coll Liberal Arts & Sci, Dept Geosci, Storrs, CT 06033 USA 5.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80305 USA 6.Columbia Univ, CCSR, GISS, New York, NY 10025 USA 7.Univ Tsukuba, Fac Life & Environm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058572, Japan 8.Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden 9.Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden 10.China Univ Geosci, Sch Environm Studies, Dept Atmospher Sci, Wuhan, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Haywood, Alan M.,Tindall, Julia C.,Dowsett, Harry J.,et al. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity[J]. CLIMATE OF THE PAST,2020,16(6):2095-2123. |
APA | Haywood, Alan M..,Tindall, Julia C..,Dowsett, Harry J..,Dolan, Aisling M..,Foley, Kevin M..,...&Lunt, Daniel J..(2020).The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity.CLIMATE OF THE PAST,16(6),2095-2123. |
MLA | Haywood, Alan M.,et al."The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity".CLIMATE OF THE PAST 16.6(2020):2095-2123. |
入库方式: OAI收割
来源:地质与地球物理研究所
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