Forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand with big data: An optimized machine learning approach
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Xie, Gang1; Qian, Yatong1,2; Wang, Shouyang1 |
| 刊名 | TOURISM MANAGEMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-02-01 |
| 卷号 | 82页码:10 |
| 关键词 | Cruise Big data Gravitational search algorithm Tourism demand forecasting |
| ISSN号 | 0261-5177 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.tourman.2020.104208 |
| 英文摘要 | After more than ten years of exponential development, the growth rate of cruise tourist in China is slowing down. There is increasingly financial risk of investing in homeports, cruise ships and promotional activities. Therefore, forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand is a prerequisite for investment decision-making and planning. In order to enhance forecasting performance, a least squares support vector regression model with gravitational search algorithm (LSSVR-GSA) is proposed for forecasting cruise tourism demand with big data, which are search query data (SQD) from Baidu and economic indexes. In the proposed model, hyper-parameters of the LSSVR model are optimized with GSA. By comparing these models with various settings, we find that LSSVR-GSA with selected mobile keywords and economic indexes can achieve the highest forecasting performance. The results indicate the proposed framework of the methodology is effective and big data can be helpful predictors for forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71771207] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71601021] ; National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, CAS |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Social Sciences - Other Topics ; Business & Economics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000571686500006 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/52214]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| 通讯作者 | Xie, Gang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, MDIS, CFS, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xie, Gang,Qian, Yatong,Wang, Shouyang. Forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand with big data: An optimized machine learning approach[J]. TOURISM MANAGEMENT,2021,82:10. |
| APA | Xie, Gang,Qian, Yatong,&Wang, Shouyang.(2021).Forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand with big data: An optimized machine learning approach.TOURISM MANAGEMENT,82,10. |
| MLA | Xie, Gang,et al."Forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand with big data: An optimized machine learning approach".TOURISM MANAGEMENT 82(2021):10. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
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