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Future Precipitation Extremes in China under Climate Change and Their Physical Quantification Based on a Regional Climate Model and CMIP5 Model Simulations

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Qin, Peihua1; Xie, Zhenghui1; Zou, Jing2; Liu, Shuang3; Chen, Si1
刊名ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
出版日期2021
卷号38期号:3页码:460-479
关键词precipitation extremes regional climate model CMIP5 models
ISSN号0256-1530
DOI10.1007/s00376-020-0141-4
产权排序3
通讯作者Qin, Peihua(qinpeihua@mail.iap.ac.cn)
文献子类Article
英文摘要The atmospheric water holding capacity will increase with temperature according to Clausius-Clapeyron scaling and affects precipitation. The rates of change in future precipitation extremes are quantified with changes in surface air temperature. Precipitation extremes in China are determined for the 21st century in six simulations using a regional climate model, RegCM4, and 17 global climate models that participated in CMIP5. First, we assess the performance of the CMIP5 models and RCM runs in their simulation of extreme precipitation for the current period (RF: 1982-2001). The CMIP5 models and RCM results can capture the spatial variations of precipitation extremes, as well as those based on observations: OBS and XPP. Precipitation extremes over four subregions in China are predicted to increase in the mid-future (MF: 2039-58) and far-future (FF: 2079-98) relative to those for the RF period based on both the CMIP5 ensemble mean and RCM ensemble mean. The secular trends in the extremes of the CMIP5 models are predicted to increase from 2008 to 2058, and the RCM results show higher interannual variability relative to that of the CMIP5 models. Then, we quantify the increasing rates of change in precipitation extremes in the MF and FF periods in the subregions of China with the changes in surface air temperature. Finally, based on the water vapor equation, changes in precipitation extremes in China for the MF and FF periods are found to correlate positively with changes in the atmospheric vertical wind multiplied by changes in surface specific humidity (significant at the p < 0.1 level).
电子版国际标准刊号1861-9533
WOS关键词ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL ; EAST-ASIA DOMAIN ; RIVER-BASINS ; NORTHWEST CHINA ; TEMPERATURE ; INDEXES ; RAINFALL ; INCREASES ; TRENDS ; REGCM4
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program of China[2019YFA0606903] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42075162] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA23090102]
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000605131100001
出版者SCIENCE PRESS
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences
源URL[http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/55168]  
专题中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
通讯作者Qin, Peihua
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China;
2.Qilu Univ Technol, Shandong Acad Sci, Inst Oceanog Instrumentat, Qingdao 266001, Peoples R China;
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Key Lab Mt Hazards & Earth Surface Proc, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Qin, Peihua,Xie, Zhenghui,Zou, Jing,et al. Future Precipitation Extremes in China under Climate Change and Their Physical Quantification Based on a Regional Climate Model and CMIP5 Model Simulations[J]. ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2021,38(3):460-479.
APA Qin, Peihua,Xie, Zhenghui,Zou, Jing,Liu, Shuang,&Chen, Si.(2021).Future Precipitation Extremes in China under Climate Change and Their Physical Quantification Based on a Regional Climate Model and CMIP5 Model Simulations.ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,38(3),460-479.
MLA Qin, Peihua,et al."Future Precipitation Extremes in China under Climate Change and Their Physical Quantification Based on a Regional Climate Model and CMIP5 Model Simulations".ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 38.3(2021):460-479.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：成都山地灾害与环境研究所

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