Maize yield loss risk under droughts in observations and crop models in the United States
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Leng, Guoyong |
| 刊名 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-02-01 |
| 卷号 | 16期号:2页码:10 |
| ISSN号 | 1748-9326 |
| 关键词 | drought risk crop yield crop model climate change |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/abd500 |
| 通讯作者 | Leng, Guoyong(lenggy@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | The negative drought impacts on crop yield are well recognized in the literature, but are evaluated mainly in a deterministic manner. Considering the randomness feature of droughts and the compounding effects of other factors, we hypothesize that droughts effects on yields are probabilistic especially for assessment in large geographical regions. Taking US maize yield as an example, we found that a moderate, severe, extreme and exceptional drought event (based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) would lead to a yield loss risk (i.e. the probability of yield reduction lower than expected value) of 64.3%, 69.9%, 73.6%, and 78.1%, respectively, with hotspots identified in Central and Southeastern US. Irrigation has reduced yield loss risk by 10%-27%, with the benefit magnitude depending on the drought intensity. Evaluations of eight process crop models indicate that they can well reproduce observed drought risks for the country as a whole, but show difficult in capturing the spatial distribution patterns. The results highlight the diverse risk pattern in response to a drought event of specific intensity, and emphasize the need for better representation of drought effects in process models at local scales. The analysis framework developed in this study is novel in that it allows for an event-based assessment of drought effects in a risk manner in both observations and process crop models. Such information is valuable not only for robust decision-makings but also for the insurance sector, which typically require the risk information rather than a single value of outcome especially given the uncertainty of drought effects. |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PROJECTED CHANGES ; TIME-SCALES ; VARIABILITY ; IMPACT ; WHEAT ; UNCERTAINTY ; SENSITIVITY ; EVOLUTION ; PROTOCOLS |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[42077420] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | IOP PUBLISHING LTD |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000609435800001 |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/136422]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Leng, Guoyong |
| 作者单位 | Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Leng, Guoyong. Maize yield loss risk under droughts in observations and crop models in the United States[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2021,16(2):10. |
| APA | Leng, Guoyong.(2021).Maize yield loss risk under droughts in observations and crop models in the United States.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,16(2),10. |
| MLA | Leng, Guoyong."Maize yield loss risk under droughts in observations and crop models in the United States".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 16.2(2021):10. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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