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Each 0.5 degrees C of Warming Increases Annual Flood Losses in China by More than US$60 Billion

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Jiang, Tong1,2; Su, Buda1,2; Huang, Jinlong2; Zhai, Jianqing3; Xia, Jun4; Tao, Hui1; Wang, Yanjun2; Sun, Hemin3; Luo, Yong5; Zhang, Liping4
刊名BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
出版日期2020-08-01
卷号101期号:8页码:E1464-E1474
ISSN号0003-0007
DOI10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0182.1
通讯作者Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.(kundzewicz@yahoo.com)
英文摘要In the warming climate, flood risk is likely to increase over much of the globe. We present projections of changes of flood losses in China for a range of global warming scenarios, from 1.5 degrees to 4.0 degrees C above the preindustrial temperature, with a 0.5 degrees C step. Projections of flood losses in China are based on river runoff simulations by a distributed hydrological model driven by multiple downscaled general circulation models, the national GDP projected at shared socioeconomic pathways, and the "intensity-loss rate" function. When interpreting changes caused by the combined effect of economic and climatic conditions, flood losses in China are projected to soar in the future, particularly in lowland regions subject to rapid economic growth. Under global warming of 1.5 degrees and 4.0 degrees C, in an average year, flood losses are projected to be, respectively, 4 and 17 times that at present. Pursuing the international climate policy target of limiting global warming is projected to reduce exposure to floods in China. In this way, flood losses in China can be reduced by tens of billions of U.S. dollars (on average, US$67 billion and up to 0.04% of GDP) for each 0.5 degrees C that warming is reduced. Our study improves understanding of the impact of climatic and nonclimatic changes on flood risk. Our scientific contribution is the first study to quantify flood impacts across China under different development pathways (shared socioeconomic pathways) for a broad range of global warming levels.
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RISK ; STATIONARITY ; PROJECTIONS ; REDUCTION ; IMPACTS ; HAZARD ; EUROPE ; DEAD
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YEA0603701] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[01671211] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[U1601113] ; CMA Special Fund on Climatic Change Research[CCSF 20192/1] ; CMA Special Fund on Climatic Change Research[CCSF201810] ; Startup Foundation for Introducing High-level Talent Recruitment Program of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) ; Guest Professor Program of the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
出版者AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
WOS记录号WOS:000589723000017
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Natural Science Foundation of China ; CMA Special Fund on Climatic Change Research ; Startup Foundation for Introducing High-level Talent Recruitment Program of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) ; Guest Professor Program of the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/136485]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi, Peoples R China
2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Geog Sci, Inst Disaster Risk Management, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Peoples R China
3.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan, Peoples R China
5.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
6.Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
7.Changjiang Water Resources Commiss, Bur Hydrol, Wuhan, Peoples R China
8.Polish Acad Sci, Inst Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Jiang, Tong,Su, Buda,Huang, Jinlong,et al. Each 0.5 degrees C of Warming Increases Annual Flood Losses in China by More than US$60 Billion[J]. BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY,2020,101(8):E1464-E1474.
APA Jiang, Tong.,Su, Buda.,Huang, Jinlong.,Zhai, Jianqing.,Xia, Jun.,...&Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W..(2020).Each 0.5 degrees C of Warming Increases Annual Flood Losses in China by More than US$60 Billion.BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY,101(8),E1464-E1474.
MLA Jiang, Tong,et al."Each 0.5 degrees C of Warming Increases Annual Flood Losses in China by More than US$60 Billion".BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 101.8(2020):E1464-E1474.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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