Multivariable flood risk and its dynamics considering project reasonable service life in a changing environment
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Hanye3; Huang, Shengzhi3; Fang, Wei3; Hou, Beibei3; Leng, Guoyong1,2; Huang, Qiang3; Zhao, Jing3; Han, Zhiming3 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020-11-01 |
| 卷号 | 590页码:13 |
| 关键词 | Flood risk analysis Multivariable Joint return period Copula function Project reasonable service life The Yangtze River Basin |
| ISSN号 | 0022-1694 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125524 |
| 通讯作者 | Huang, Shengzhi(huangshengzhi7788@126.com) ; Fang, Wei(fwmartin@163.com) |
| 英文摘要 | Concern over the impacts of changing environments on extreme floods has made the multivariable flood risk assessment paid more attention by the whole world. Recent studies have taken the combination of flood peak, flood volume, and duration into account when assessing flood risk. Nevertheless, the dynamics of multivariable flood risk considering project reasonable service life remains unresolved. To this end, flood peak and flood volume were considered, and Copula function was used to describe their dependent structure, considering project effective service life based on the joint return period to calculate the risk rate for characterizing flood risk. Then, a sliding window of 25 years was adopted to explore its dynamics, and attribution analysis was subsequently conducted. The Pai-lung River, which belongs to the Yangtze River Basin in China, was selected as a case study. Results show that: (1) on basis of "and (boolean AND)" joint return period, considering 50-year reasonable service life, the risks of slight, moderate, severe, and extreme floods are 1.00, 0.96, 0.66, and 0.06, respectively; (2) the flood risk dynamics vary with different levels, where the risks of slight and moderate floods tend to decrease whilst the risk of severe and extreme floods shows a significant increase; (3) the risk dynamics of severe and extreme floods are positively related to Sunspots, El Nino Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, while Pacific Decadal Oscillation has a weaker influence on flood risk dynamics. Generally, this study sheds new insights into multivariable flood risk assessment in a changing environment. |
| WOS关键词 | EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RIVER-BASIN ; EL-NINO ; CHINA ; MODEL ; VARIABILITY ; IMPACT ; VULNERABILITY ; STREAMFLOW |
| 资助项目 | National Key R&D Program of China[2017YFC0405900] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[2018 M640155] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51709221] ; Key laboratory research projects of education department of Shaanxi province[17JS104] ; Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research)[IWHR-SKL-KF201803] ; Planning project of science and technology of water resources of Shaanxi[2015slkj-27] ; Planning project of science and technology of water resources of Shaanxi[2017slkj-19] |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000599754500222 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | National Key R&D Program of China ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Key laboratory research projects of education department of Shaanxi province ; Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin (China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research) ; Planning project of science and technology of water resources of Shaanxi |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/137711]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Huang, Shengzhi; Fang, Wei |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Xian Univ Technol, State Key Lab Ecohydraul Northwest Arid Reg China, Xian 710048, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Hanye,Huang, Shengzhi,Fang, Wei,et al. Multivariable flood risk and its dynamics considering project reasonable service life in a changing environment[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2020,590:13. |
| APA | Wang, Hanye.,Huang, Shengzhi.,Fang, Wei.,Hou, Beibei.,Leng, Guoyong.,...&Han, Zhiming.(2020).Multivariable flood risk and its dynamics considering project reasonable service life in a changing environment.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,590,13. |
| MLA | Wang, Hanye,et al."Multivariable flood risk and its dynamics considering project reasonable service life in a changing environment".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 590(2020):13. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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