Probability Models of Fire Risk Based on Forest Fire Indices in Contrasting Climates over China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Li Xiaowei3; Fu Guobin1; Zeppel Melanie J B4; Yu Xiubo3 ; Zhao Gang3; Derek Eamus2; Yu Qiang3
|
| 刊名 | Journal of Resources and Ecology
 |
| 出版日期 | 2012 |
| 卷号 | 3期号:2页码:105 |
| 关键词 | 气候 森林火灾 气象风险 火险指数 半参数化Logistic回归模型 |
| ISSN号 | 1674-764X |
| 英文摘要 | Fire weather indices have been widely applied to predict fire risk in many regions of the world. The objectives of this study were to establish fire risk probability models based on fire indices over different climatic regions in China. We linked the indices adopted in Canadian, US, and Australia with location, time, altitude, vegetation and fire characteristics during 1998-2007 in four regions using semi- parametric logistic (SPL) regression models. Different combinations of fire risk indices were selected as explanatory variables for specific regional probability model. SPL regression models of probability of fire ignition and large fire events were established to describe the non-linear relationship between fire risk indices and fire risk probabilities in the four regions. Graphs of observed versus estimated probabilities, fire risk maps, graphs of numbers of large fire events were produced from the probability models to assess the skill of these models. Fire ignition in all regions showed a significant link with altitude and NDVI. Indices of fuel moisture are important factors influencing fire occurrence in northern China. The fuel indices of organic material are significant indicators of fire risk in southern China. Besides the well skill of predicting fire risk, the probability models are a useful method to assess the utility of the fire risk indices in estimating fire events. The analysis presents some of the dynamics of climate-fire interactions and their value for management systems. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/155677]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 作者单位 | 1.CSIRO Land and Water 2.Plant Functional Biology & Climate Change Cluster, School of the Environment, University of Technology 3.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS 4.麦觉理大学 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li Xiaowei,Fu Guobin,Zeppel Melanie J B,et al. Probability Models of Fire Risk Based on Forest Fire Indices in Contrasting Climates over China[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology,2012,3(2):105. |
| APA | Li Xiaowei.,Fu Guobin.,Zeppel Melanie J B.,Yu Xiubo.,Zhao Gang.,...&Yu Qiang.(2012).Probability Models of Fire Risk Based on Forest Fire Indices in Contrasting Climates over China.Journal of Resources and Ecology,3(2),105. |
| MLA | Li Xiaowei,et al."Probability Models of Fire Risk Based on Forest Fire Indices in Contrasting Climates over China".Journal of Resources and Ecology 3.2(2012):105. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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