Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Li, Leilei2,3; Yang, Jintao1,3; Wu, Jin3 |
| 刊名 | SENSORS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020-11-01 |
| 卷号 | 20期号:21页码:20 |
| 关键词 | NEX-GDDP dataset CA-Markov model SWAT model Taihu basin flood risk |
| DOI | 10.3390/s20216079 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Leilei(lileilei17@mails.ucas.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Global warming and land-use change affects runoff in the regional basin. Affected by different factors, such as abundant rainfall and increased impervious surface, the Taihu basin becomes more vulnerable to floods. As a result, a future flood risk analysis is of great significance. This paper simulated the land-use expansion and analyzed the surface change from 2020 to 2050 using the neural network Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) model. Moreover, the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset was corrected for deviation and used to analyze the climate trend. Second, the verified SWAT model was applied to simulate future runoff and to analyze the future flood risk. The results show that (1) land use is dominated by cultivated land and forests. In the future, the area of cultivated land will decrease and construction land will expand to 1.5 times its present size. (2) The average annual precipitation and temperature will increase by 1.2% and 1.5 degrees from 2020 to 2050, respectively. During the verified period, the NSE and r-square values of the SWAT model are greater than 0.7. (3) Compared with the historical extreme runoff, the extreme runoff in the return period will increase 10%similar to 25% under the eight climate models in 2050. In general, the flood risk will increase further under the climate scenarios. |
| WOS关键词 | RIVER-BASIN ; HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; YANGTZE-RIVER ; COVER CHANGE ; FLASH-FLOOD ; URBAN ; IMPACTS ; MODEL |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation Project of China[41590845] ; key laboratory ; Google Earth engine platform |
| WOS研究方向 | Chemistry ; Engineering ; Instruments & Instrumentation |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000589364400001 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation Project of China ; key laboratory ; Google Earth engine platform |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/156507]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Leilei |
| 作者单位 | 1.Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100039, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Leilei,Yang, Jintao,Wu, Jin. Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin[J]. SENSORS,2020,20(21):20. |
| APA | Li, Leilei,Yang, Jintao,&Wu, Jin.(2020).Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin.SENSORS,20(21),20. |
| MLA | Li, Leilei,et al."Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin".SENSORS 20.21(2020):20. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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