Water scarcity in the Yellow River Basin under future climate change and human activities
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Omer, Abubaker3,5; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed1; Ma Zhuguo3,5; Saleem, Farhan3,4; Mohammed, Alnail2 |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020-12-20 |
| 卷号 | 749页码:13 |
| 关键词 | Water scarcity Drought Climate change Human activities Land-use changes Yellow River Basin |
| ISSN号 | 0048-9697 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141446 |
| 通讯作者 | Ma Zhuguo(mazg@tea.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Under global climate change and pressure from human activities, water scarcity is becoming a major concern in the quest for regional sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). This study integrates scenarios of climate change and human activities under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with a watershed-scale hydrological model, and uses the Water Use-to-Availability Ratio (WUAR) to study future water scarcity over six sub-catchments in the YRB. It further investigates the relationship between the future water scarcity and hydroclimatic and anthropogenic drivers. The results suggest that the average WUAR under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 will likely exceed the water scarcity threshold (WUAR >20%) and will reach up to 39.9 and 44.7%, respectively. The average WUAR for the upstream and downstream sub-catchments will likely range from 23.8 to 51.6% under RCP4.5 and from 255% to 73.8% under RCP8.5, indicating moderate to severe and moderate to extreme water scarcity, respectively. Future WUAR correlates negatively (r-value = -0.85) with the streamflow drought index (SDI) in the upstream sub-catchments, i.e., hydrological drought will likely intensify water scarcity. Conversely, WUAR and SDI would be positively correlated (r-value +0.70) in the downstream sub-catchments, i.e., water scarcity will become severer despite decreasing severity of hydrological drought. Under climate change, water scarcity in these sub-catchments will exhibit high dependency (Kendall T correlation coefficient = 0.84) on water-use patterns than on water availability. The regression analysis indicates that the WUAR will increase significantly (p < 0.05) with projected woodland, cropland, and buildup areas under RCP4.5. This relationship will become even more significant (p < 0.01) under RCP8.5. This study provides insights into the potential drivers of future water scarcity in the YRB, which is likely to confront water supply crises. The study should help policymaking towards attaining sustainable water management in the basin. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| WOS关键词 | LAND-USE CHANGE ; TEMPORAL VARIABILITY ; DROUGHT INDEXES ; MARKOV-CHAIN ; IMPACTS ; MODEL ; RESOURCES ; DISCHARGE ; CHINA ; QUANTIFICATION |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41530532] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41605085] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41705072] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000581793800037 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/156681]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Ma Zhuguo |
| 作者单位 | 1.Bockingstr 55, D-51063 Koln Mulheim, Germany 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth & Planetary Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Int Ctr Climate & Environm Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Res Temperate East A, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Omer, Abubaker,Elagib, Nadir Ahmed,Ma Zhuguo,et al. Water scarcity in the Yellow River Basin under future climate change and human activities[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2020,749:13. |
| APA | Omer, Abubaker,Elagib, Nadir Ahmed,Ma Zhuguo,Saleem, Farhan,&Mohammed, Alnail.(2020).Water scarcity in the Yellow River Basin under future climate change and human activities.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,749,13. |
| MLA | Omer, Abubaker,et al."Water scarcity in the Yellow River Basin under future climate change and human activities".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 749(2020):13. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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