Future climate impacts on global agricultural yields over the 21st century
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Waldhoff,Stephanie T2; Wing,Ian Sue3; Edmonds,James2; Leng,Guoyong1,4; Zhang,Xuesong5 |
| 刊名 | Environmental Research Letters
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020-10-15 |
| 卷号 | 15期号:11 |
| 关键词 | climate change crop yields statistical models |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/abadcb |
| 通讯作者 | Waldhoff,Stephanie T() |
| 英文摘要 | AbstractAnalyses of the future impacts of changing crop yields on agricultural production, prices, food security, and GDP growth using Integrated Assessment models require country-level yield shocks due to changing weather conditions, for a wide range of crops and warming scenarios. We characterize impacts of different climate futures on crop yields for individual countries and years. We use historical crop yield and weather data to empirically estimate annual crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation, constructing reduced-form statistical models that are then coupled with earth system model outputs for the same variables to project future yields. Our main result is a panel of annual shocks to yields of 12 crops (cassava, cotton, maize, potatoes, rice, sorghum, soybean, sugar beet, sugarcane, sunflower, and winter and spring wheat) for 58–136 countries, depending on the crop, through 2099, under moderate and vigorous warming scenarios. We find that global yield impacts by century’s end (2086–2095) are ? 2%, ? 19%, ? 14%, and ? 1%, without the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE), for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat, respectively, with similar global values with CFE. However, the global and decadal averages mask regional and year-to-year differences that may have large economic consequences, which IAMs could more fully address by representing agricultural yield impacts through the parameters supplied by our study. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | IOP:1748-9326-15-11-ABADCB |
| 出版者 | IOP Publishing |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/156733]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Waldhoff,Stephanie T |
| 作者单位 | 1.Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, People’s Republic of China 2.Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute United States of America 3.Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, United States of America 4.Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom 5.Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, United States of America |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Waldhoff,Stephanie T,Wing,Ian Sue,Edmonds,James,et al. Future climate impacts on global agricultural yields over the 21st century[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2020,15(11). |
| APA | Waldhoff,Stephanie T,Wing,Ian Sue,Edmonds,James,Leng,Guoyong,&Zhang,Xuesong.(2020).Future climate impacts on global agricultural yields over the 21st century.Environmental Research Letters,15(11). |
| MLA | Waldhoff,Stephanie T,et al."Future climate impacts on global agricultural yields over the 21st century".Environmental Research Letters 15.11(2020). |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。