Impacts of Climate Change on Wildfires in Central Asia
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zong, Xuezheng2; Tian, Xiaorui2; Yin, Yunhe1
|
| 刊名 | FORESTS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020-08-01 |
| 卷号 | 11期号:8页码:14 |
| 关键词 | climate change fire weather MNI fire season |
| DOI | 10.3390/f11080802 |
| 通讯作者 | Tian, Xiaorui(tianxr@caf.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | This study analyzed fire weather and fire regimes in Central Asia from 2001-2015 and projected the impacts of climate change on fire weather in the 2030s (2021-2050) and 2080s (2071-2099), which would be helpful for improving wildfire management and adapting to future climate change in the region. The study area included five countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The study area could be divided into four subregions based on vegetation type: shrub (R1), grassland (R2), mountain forest (R3), and rare vegetation area (R4). We used the modified Nesterov index (MNI) to indicate the fire weather of the region. The fire season for each vegetation zone was determined with the daily MNI and burned areas. We used the HadGEM2-ES global climate model with four scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) to project the future weather and fire weather of Central Asia. The results showed that the fire season for shrub areas (R1) was from 1 April to 30 November, for grassland (R2) was from 1 March to 30 November, and for mountain forest (R3) was from 1 April to 30 October. The daily burned areas of R1 and R2 mainly occurred in the period from June-August, while that of R3 mainly occurred in the April-June and August-October periods. Compared with the baseline (1971-2000), the mean daily maximum temperature and precipitation, in the fire seasons of study area, will increase by 14%-23% and 7%-15% in the 2030s, and 21%-37% and 11%-21% in the 2080s, respectively. The mean MNI will increase by 33%-68% in the 2030s and 63%-146% in the 2080s. The potential burned areas of will increase by 2%-8% in the 2030s and 3%-13% in the 2080s. Wildfire management needs to improve to adapt to increasing fire danger in the future. |
| WOS关键词 | FOREST-FIRE DANGER ; BURNED AREA ; SEVERITY ; PRODUCTS |
| 资助项目 | Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20020202] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31770695] |
| WOS研究方向 | Forestry |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000568051700001 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 资助机构 | Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/156821]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Tian, Xiaorui |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Forestry, Res Inst Forest Ecol Environm & Protect, Natl Forestry & Grassland Adm, Key Lab Forest Protect, Beijing 100091, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zong, Xuezheng,Tian, Xiaorui,Yin, Yunhe. Impacts of Climate Change on Wildfires in Central Asia[J]. FORESTS,2020,11(8):14. |
| APA | Zong, Xuezheng,Tian, Xiaorui,&Yin, Yunhe.(2020).Impacts of Climate Change on Wildfires in Central Asia.FORESTS,11(8),14. |
| MLA | Zong, Xuezheng,et al."Impacts of Climate Change on Wildfires in Central Asia".FORESTS 11.8(2020):14. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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