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Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Liu, Yujie1,2; Chen, Jie1,2; Pan, Tao1; Liu, Yanhua1,2; Zhang, Yuhu3; Ge, Quansheng1,2; Ciais, Philippe4; Penuelas, Josep5,6
刊名EARTHS FUTURE
出版日期2020-09-01
卷号8期号:9页码:15
关键词socioeconomic risk precipitation extremes climate change RCP scenarios SSP scenarios
DOI10.1029/2019EF001331
通讯作者Liu, Yujie(liuyujie@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Pan, Tao(pantao@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Ge, Quansheng(geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Precipitation extremes are among the most serious consequences of climate change around the world. The observed and projected frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in some regions will greatly influence the social economy. The frequency of extreme precipitation and the population and economic exposure were quantified for a base period (1986-2005) and future periods (2016-2035 and 2046-2065) based on bias corrected projections of daily precipitation from five global climatic models forced with three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and projections of population and gross domestic product (GDP) in the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario produces the highest global population exposure for 2046-2065, with nearly 30% of the global population (2.97 x 10(9) persons) exposed to precipitation extremes >10 days/a. The RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario produces the highest global GDP exposure for 2046-2065, with a 5.56-fold increase relative to the base period, of up to (2.29 0.20) x 10(15) purchasing power parity $-days. Socioeconomic effects are the primary contributor to the exposure changes at the global and continental scales. Population and GDP effects account for 64-77% and 78-91% of the total exposure change, respectively. The inequality of exposure indicates that more attention should be given to Asia and Africa due to their rapid increases in population and GDP. However, due to their dense populations and high GDPs, European countries, that is, Luxembourg, Belgium, and the Netherlands, should also commit to effective adaptation measures. Plain Language Summary The risk of precipitation extremes is likely to increase with climate change. Socioeconomic exposure is the key component for assessing the risk of such events. The projections of five global climate models (GCMs), forced with three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and projections of population and gross domestic product (GDP) in shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), were used to quantify socioeconomic exposure to precipitation extremes for a base period (1986-2005) and future periods (2016-2035 and 2046-2065). The exposure of the global population for 2046-2065 is highest under the RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario, and the global GDP exposure for 2046-2065 is highest under the RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario. Socioeconomic effects (population and GDP effects) play the main roles in the changes in exposure at both global and continental scales. Asia and Africa should be given more attention due to their rapid increases in population and GDP. However, due to their dense populations and high GDPs, European countries should also commit to effective adaptation measures. Key Points Global population and GDP exposures are highest for 2046-2065 in RCP8.5-SSP3 and RCP2.6-SSP1, 8.46 x 10(10) person-days and 2.29 x 10(15)PPP $-days Increases in population and GDP are the dominant contributors, accounting for over 60% of future changes in socioeconomic exposure Effective adaptation is urgently needed for some European countries, for example, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Belgium, and in Asia and Africa
WOS关键词DEGREES-C ; EXPOSURE ; POPULATION ; TEMPERATURE ; INTENSITY ; IMPACT ; DAMAGE ; CMIP5
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602402] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671037] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)[2016049] ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR)[2017RC101] ; European Research Council Synergy grant[ERC-SyG-2013-610028]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000576405800006
出版者AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR) ; European Research Council Synergy grant
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/157047]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Liu, Yujie; Pan, Tao; Ge, Quansheng
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci UCAS, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Capital Normal Univ, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.UVSQ, CNRS, CEA, Lab Sci Climat & Environm IPSL,LSCE, Gif Sur Yvette, France
5.UAB, CSIC, Global Ecol CREAF, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
6.CREAF, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Liu, Yujie,Chen, Jie,Pan, Tao,et al. Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2020,8(9):15.
APA Liu, Yujie.,Chen, Jie.,Pan, Tao.,Liu, Yanhua.,Zhang, Yuhu.,...&Penuelas, Josep.(2020).Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change.EARTHS FUTURE,8(9),15.
MLA Liu, Yujie,et al."Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change".EARTHS FUTURE 8.9(2020):15.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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