How global warming alters future maize yield and water use efficiency in China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Yujie1,2 ; Zhang, Jie1,2; Qin, Ya1,2
|
| 刊名 | TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020-11-01 |
| 卷号 | 160页码:10 |
| 关键词 | Maize yield Water use efficiency 1.5 degrees C global warming 2.0 degrees C global warming CERES-maize model |
| ISSN号 | 0040-1625 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120229 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Yujie(liuyujie@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Agricultural production is highly sensitive to climate change. Scientifically evaluating the impact of climate change on agriculture lays a foundation for stakeholders to make evidence-based decisions. However, the potential changes to China's maize production and water use efficiency (WUE) under the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming (GW1.5 and GW2.0) scenarios still remain unclear. In this study, the spatiotemporal changes in China's maize yield and WUE relative to the reference period (1986-2005) under GW1.5 and GW2.0 were simulated using the calibrated and validated CERES-Maize model. The climate of GW1.5 could be beneficial for maize yield and WUE, but these benefits declined when warming reached 2.0 degrees C above the pre-industrial level. Under GW2.0, China's main food-producing regions became high-risk areas for maize yield reductions. The decrease of maize yield in the north spring maize zone and Huanghuai Plain spring-summer maize zone were both higher than that in other planting zones. Increasing risk of yield reduction and a looming water use crisis are likely to bring unprecedented challenges to sustainable agricultural development. Controlling the temperature rise within 1.5 degrees C would reduce the yield reduction risk in each planting zone by 11.01-75.69%, which is conducive to ensuring China's food security. |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; UNITED-STATES ; CROP YIELD ; MODEL ; WHEAT ; NITROGEN ; IMPACTS ; CARBON ; ENERGY ; AGRICULTURE |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41671037] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2018YFA0606102] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of Sciences[2016049] ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences[2017RC101] |
| WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics ; Public Administration |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000579884900016 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/157075]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Yujie |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Yujie,Zhang, Jie,Qin, Ya. How global warming alters future maize yield and water use efficiency in China[J]. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,2020,160:10. |
| APA | Liu, Yujie,Zhang, Jie,&Qin, Ya.(2020).How global warming alters future maize yield and water use efficiency in China.TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,160,10. |
| MLA | Liu, Yujie,et al."How global warming alters future maize yield and water use efficiency in China".TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 160(2020):10. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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