Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub-Saharan Africa
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Falconnier, Gatien N.5; Corbeels, Marc5,6; Boote, Kenneth J.7; Affholder, Francois5; Adam, Myriam8,9; MacCarthy, Dilys S.2; Ruane, Alex C.3; Nendel, Claas4; Whitbread, Anthony M.24; Justes, Eric25 |
| 刊名 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020-08-18 |
| 页码 | 23 |
| ISSN号 | 1354-1013 |
| 关键词 | crop simulation model ensemble modelling model intercomparison smallholder farming systems uncertainty |
| DOI | 10.1111/gcb.15261 |
| 通讯作者 | Falconnier, Gatien N.(gatien.falconnier@cirad.fr) |
| 英文摘要 | Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in-season soil water content from 2-year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (a) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2]; (b) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall; and (c) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model intercomparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation approaches across SSA, because the impact of climate change in low input systems will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with balanced nutrient management. |
| WOS关键词 | ELEVATED CARBON-DIOXIDE ; CROP GROWTH ; ADAPTATION OPTIONS ; CO2 CONCENTRATION ; SOUTHERN AFRICA ; FOOD SECURITY ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; WATER-BALANCE ; DRY SAVANNA ; WHEAT |
| WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | WILEY |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000560085800001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/158090]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Falconnier, Gatien N. |
| 作者单位 | 1.INRA, Agroclim, Avignon, France 2.Univ Ghana, Sch Agr, Coll Basic & Appl Sci, Soil & Irrigat Res Ctr, Accra, Ghana 3.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, Climate Impacts Grp, New York, NY 10025 USA 4.Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res, Muncheberg, Germany 5.Univ Montpellier, AIDA, CIRAD, Montpellier, France 6.CIMMYT, Nairobi, Kenya 7.Univ Florida, Gainesville, FL USA 8.UMR AGAP, CIRAD, Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso 9.Univ Montpellier, AGAP, CIRAD, Montpellier SupAgro,INRA, Montpellier, France 10.Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat INRES, Crop Sci Grp, Bonn, Germany |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Falconnier, Gatien N.,Corbeels, Marc,Boote, Kenneth J.,et al. Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub-Saharan Africa[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2020:23. |
| APA | Falconnier, Gatien N..,Corbeels, Marc.,Boote, Kenneth J..,Affholder, Francois.,Adam, Myriam.,...&Webber, Heidi.(2020).Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub-Saharan Africa.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,23. |
| MLA | Falconnier, Gatien N.,et al."Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub-Saharan Africa".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY (2020):23. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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