Drought assessment of southwestern China based on HadGEM2-ES model under representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Leng, Xianxian1; Liu, Xiaogang1; Gao, Yanli1; Liu, Yujie2 ; Yang, Qiliang1; Sun, Guangzhao1; Peng, Youliang1; Huang, Yifeng1
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| 刊名 | NATURAL HAZARDS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2020-05-01 |
| 卷号 | 102期号:1页码:307-334 |
| 关键词 | Standardized precipitation index Standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index The sudden changes Spatial distribution Runs theory Drought character |
| ISSN号 | 0921-030X |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11069-020-03928-7 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Xiaogang(liuxiaogangjy@126.com) |
| 英文摘要 | This paper analyzed the drought situation in southwestern China with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) on multiple time scales. The spatial distribution, seasonal variation and features of drought in southwestern China were examined separately by drought frequency, probability of non-exceedance and runs theory. The results showed that the precipitation sequence will change suddenly near 2073 and an obvious, long-term drought will occur after 2073 due to the decline in precipitation. The spatial distribution of drought frequency indicated that the drought frequency will grow obviously in 2071-2100, and the growth rate will increase from the peripheral to the center of the region. The probability of non-exceedance for SPEI-1 less than - 1.0 will be 14.6% in the spring of 2011-2040, grow in 2041-2070 and reach 25.9% in 2071-2100, while that of SPEI in winter will gradually increase in all periods. When the SPEI-12 is smaller than - 1.0, the non-exceedance probability of the index in all seasons of 1981-2100 was and will be growing gradually, indicating that climate change has and will cause severe droughts in spring and winter from 1981 through 2100, especially the medium- and long-term drought. Through the analysis of the SPI and SPEI time sequences by runs theory, it is observed that the drought severity predicted by SPI-12 was and will be increasing over time, and the long-term drought will become more serious. On all time scales, if the SPEI is smaller than - 1.0, the drought duration will gradually increase from 1981-2010 to 2071-2100, indicating the drought in the study region will worsen due to climate change. |
| WOS关键词 | PRECIPITATION EVAPOTRANSPIRATION INDEX ; METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT ; SPATIOTEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS ; GLOBAL DROUGHT ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; YANGTZE-RIVER ; TEMPERATURE ; SPI ; PLATEAU ; TRENDS |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[51979133] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51769010] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51109102] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51469010] ; key laboratory construction project of Yunnan University |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000528288300001 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; key laboratory construction project of Yunnan University |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/159814]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Xiaogang |
| 作者单位 | 1.Kunming Univ Sci & Technol, Fac Agr & Food, Kunming 650500, Yunnan, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Leng, Xianxian,Liu, Xiaogang,Gao, Yanli,et al. Drought assessment of southwestern China based on HadGEM2-ES model under representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2020,102(1):307-334. |
| APA | Leng, Xianxian.,Liu, Xiaogang.,Gao, Yanli.,Liu, Yujie.,Yang, Qiliang.,...&Huang, Yifeng.(2020).Drought assessment of southwestern China based on HadGEM2-ES model under representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario.NATURAL HAZARDS,102(1),307-334. |
| MLA | Leng, Xianxian,et al."Drought assessment of southwestern China based on HadGEM2-ES model under representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario".NATURAL HAZARDS 102.1(2020):307-334. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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