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Exploring regional land use dynamics under shared socioeconomic pathways: A case study in Inner Mongolia, China

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Bai, Yuping1; Deng, Xiangzheng2,3; Cheng, Yunfei4; Hu, Yecui1; Zhang, Lijin1
刊名TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
出版日期2021-05-01
卷号166页码:15
ISSN号0040-1625
关键词Land use change Shared Socio-economic pathways CGELUC model DLS Inner Mongolia
DOI10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120606
通讯作者Bai, Yuping(baiyp@cugb.edu.cn)
英文摘要Land use change scenarios can contribute to the development of improved policies to tackle climate change. In this study, we developed an integrated modeling framework to simulate land use dynamics in Inner Mongolia, China under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) during 2015?2050. A computable general equilibrium of land use change model was developed to simulate the regional socio-economic effects on future land use demand. The Dynamics of Land System model was applied to simulate the spatial patterns of land use change. Land use change varied considerably among SSPs. Increased agricultural productivity reduced the demand for cultivated land. Increased livestock system efficiency and decreased animal product consumption reduced grassland demand, benefiting natural grassland recovery. Built-up land increased in all SSPs, with positive relation to GDP growth. Under SSP1, forest area, grassland, and built-up land increased by 19940 km2 (12.05%), 9882 km2 (1.88%), and 20844 km2 (129.19%), respectively, while cultivated land decreased by 10995 km2 (-9.80%). Grassland decreased considerably under SSP3 and SSP4, and distributed discretely, mainly concentrated on Xilin Gol League and northwestern Ulanqab. Built-up land sprawled considerably under SSP1 and SSP5, and was mainly concentrated in eastern Tongliao and northern Ordos. This integrated modeling framework provides an effective and reliable way to simulate regional land use dynamics under a range of alternative future pathways.
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFA0602500] ; Openended Fund of Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Chinese Academy of Sciences[LB2021001] ; National Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholar[71225005]
WOS研究方向Business & Economics ; Public Administration
语种英语
出版者ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
WOS记录号WOS:000635171700007
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Openended Fund of Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholar
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/161920]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Bai, Yuping
作者单位1.China Univ Geosci, Sch Land Sci & Technol, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100149, Peoples R China
4.Peking Univ, Inst Populat Res, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Bai, Yuping,Deng, Xiangzheng,Cheng, Yunfei,et al. Exploring regional land use dynamics under shared socioeconomic pathways: A case study in Inner Mongolia, China[J]. TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,2021,166:15.
APA Bai, Yuping,Deng, Xiangzheng,Cheng, Yunfei,Hu, Yecui,&Zhang, Lijin.(2021).Exploring regional land use dynamics under shared socioeconomic pathways: A case study in Inner Mongolia, China.TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE,166,15.
MLA Bai, Yuping,et al."Exploring regional land use dynamics under shared socioeconomic pathways: A case study in Inner Mongolia, China".TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 166(2021):15.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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