Assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River basin, China
文献类型：SCI/SSCI论文
| 作者 | Liu, Zhaofei1,2 ; Xu, Zongxue2; Fu, Guobin3; Yao, Zhijun1
|
| 发表日期 | 2013 |
| 关键词 | Gcm Non-homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (Nhmm) Runoff Statistical Downscaling Model (Sdsm) Special Report On emissiOn Scenarios Vic Model |
| 英文摘要 | Two statistical downscaling models were used to downscale regional climate change scenarios, on the basis of the outputs of three general circulation models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios. Driven by these climate change scenarios, a distributed macro-scale hydrological model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model) was applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment (HC) of the Tarim River basin, China. The results showed that the HC tends to experience warmer and drier conditions under the combined climate change scenarios. The predictions show a decreasing trend of the runoff in the HC, driven by the combined climate change scenarios. The results predicted an increasing trend for winter runoff however, which was consistent with the forecasts from most previous studies on other locations such as the region of St Lawrence tributaries (Quebec, Canada) and the Willamette River Basin (Oregon, USA). There was an inconsistent intra-annual distribution of the changes in precipitation and runoff in the HC; these inconsistencies may be explained by increasing snowmelt runoff resulting from higher air temperature. It was concluded that uncertainties within different GCM outputs are more significant than emission scenarios in the assessment of the potential impact of climate change. |
| 出处 | HYDROLOGY RESEARCH |
| 卷 | 44 |
| 期 | 5 ; 5 |
| 页 | 834-849 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 源URL | [http://192.168.22.105/handle/311030/30369]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_历年回溯文献 |
| 通讯作者 | Xu, Zongxue |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Key Lab Water & Sediment Sci, Minist Educ, Coll Water Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China 3.CSIRO Land & Water, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Zhaofei,Xu, Zongxue,Fu, Guobin,et al. Assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River basin, China. 2013. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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