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Comparing Palmer Drought Severity Index drought assessments using the traditional offline approach with direct climate model outputs

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Yang, Yuting2; Zhang, Shulei1; Roderick, Michael L.3,4; McVicar, Tim4,5; Yang, Dawen2; Liu, Wenbin6; Li, Xiaoyan1
刊名HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
出版日期2020-06-03
卷号24期号:6页码:2921-2930
ISSN号1027-5606
DOI10.5194/hess-24-2921-2020
通讯作者Yang, Yuting(yuting_yang@tsinghua.edu.cn)
英文摘要Anthropogenic warming has been projected to increase global drought for the 21st century when calculated using traditional offline drought indices. However, this contradicts observations of the overall global greening and little systematic change in runoff over the past few decades and climate projections of future greening with slight increases in global runoff for the coming century. This calls into question the drought projections based on traditional offline drought indices. Here we calculate a widely used traditional drought index (i.e., the Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI) using direct outputs from 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models (PDSI_CMIP5) such that the hydrologic consistency between PDSI_CMIP5 and CMIP5 models is maintained. We find that the PDSI_CMIP5-depicted drought increases (in terms of drought severity, frequency, and extent) are much smaller than that reported when PDSI is calculated using the traditional offline approach that has been widely used in previous drought assessments under climate change. Further analyses indicate that the overestimation of PDSI drought increases reported previously using the PDSI is primarily due to ignoring the vegetation response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) in the traditional offline calculations. Finally, we show that the overestimation of drought using the traditional PDSI approach can be minimized by accounting for the effect of CO2 on evapotranspiration.
WOS关键词GLOBAL DROUGHT ; CO2 ; CMIP5 ; WATER ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; CONDUCTANCE ; IMPACT
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[41890821] ; Qinghai Department of Science and Technology[2019-SF-A4] ; Ministry of Science and Technology of China[2019YFC1510604] ; Australian Research Council[CE170100023] ; CSIRO Land and Water
WOS研究方向Geology ; Water Resources
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000538409100002
出版者COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Qinghai Department of Science and Technology ; Ministry of Science and Technology of China ; Australian Research Council ; CSIRO Land and Water
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/162250]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Yang, Yuting
作者单位1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Sch Nat Resources, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Hydraul Engn, State Key Lab Hydrosci & Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Earth Sci, Canberra, ACT, Australia
4.Australian Res Council, Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Canberra, ACT, Australia
5.CSIRO Land & Water, Canberra, ACT, Australia
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Yang, Yuting,Zhang, Shulei,Roderick, Michael L.,et al. Comparing Palmer Drought Severity Index drought assessments using the traditional offline approach with direct climate model outputs[J]. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,2020,24(6):2921-2930.
APA Yang, Yuting.,Zhang, Shulei.,Roderick, Michael L..,McVicar, Tim.,Yang, Dawen.,...&Li, Xiaoyan.(2020).Comparing Palmer Drought Severity Index drought assessments using the traditional offline approach with direct climate model outputs.HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,24(6),2921-2930.
MLA Yang, Yuting,et al."Comparing Palmer Drought Severity Index drought assessments using the traditional offline approach with direct climate model outputs".HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 24.6(2020):2921-2930.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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